The US struggles to sway Israel on its treatment of Palestinians. Why Netanyahu is unlikely to yield
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden’s administration continues to urge Israel to return to working with the Palestinians as partners once the fighting in Gaza ends and support their eventual independence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps saying no.
Even when it comes to actions to alleviate the suffering of Palestinian civilians, the two allies are far apart.
This cycle, which has been frustrating for much of the world, seems unlikely to end, despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s fourth urgent diplomatic trip to the Middle East this week since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. Although the United States, as Israel’s closest ally and largest arms supplier, has stronger tools to pressure Israel, it has shown no willingness to use them.
For both Netanyahu and Biden, public opinion at home, deep personal conviction in the rightness of Israel’s cause, and each’s struggle for his own short-term political survival make it seem unlikely that Netanyahu will deliver much for the US . demands towards the Palestinians, or that Biden will become much tougher in his attempts to coerce them.
Support for Israel is a fundamental belief of many American voters. Biden’s presidential reelection this year pits him against Republicans vying to outdo each other in support for Israel. For his part, Netanyahu is fighting to stay in office despite allegations of corruption.
Some experts warn that this is a formula that could tempt the US into deeper military and security involvement in the Middle East as hostilities worsen and Palestinian civilians continue to suffer.
“It’s a self-defeating policy,” said Brian Finucane, a former policy adviser at the State Department on counter-terrorism and the use of military force.
“What may be expedient in terms of short-term domestic politics may not be in the long-term interest of the United States,” said Finucane, who is now a senior adviser to the research organization International Crisis Group. “Especially if this leads to the United States becoming involved in further unnecessary wars in the Middle East.”
The administration says Biden’s approach to remaining Israel’s indispensable military ally and supporter is the best way to extract concessions from the often hardline Netanyahu, whose ministers shouted out their rejection of some US requests even when Blinken was still in the region.
Since Hamas attacked on October 7, the US has rushed weapons and other aid to Israel, deployed troops to the region to deal with escalated attacks from Hamas’s Iran-backed allies, and attempted by the United Nations to Condemning Israel’s bombing of Palestinian civilians overturned. .
Thursday US time, the same day Blinken wrapped up his diplomatic mission in the US. warships and planes are hitting targets in Yemen, hoping to quell attacks that the country’s Iran-allied Houthis have launched on commercial shipping in the Red Sea since Israel began its devastating offensive in Hamas-controlled Gaza.
US officials are claiming modest success for Blinken’s latest diplomatic efforts. He secured limited, conditional support from Arab leaders and Turkey for the planning of reconstruction and governance in Gaza after the end of the war. But the prospects are uncertain because Israel’s far-right government disagrees on a number of key issues.
The Biden administration has placed a special bounty on Israel by reducing civilian casualties in its military operations. The US insistence appeared to have some effect in recent days, as Israel began withdrawing some troops from northern Gaza and embarking on a less intensive airstrike campaign.
Israel is not only uncooperative but also openly hostile to some smaller US requests, such as when Blinken urged Israel to hand over the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, which Israel has refused.
“We will continue to fight with all our might to destroy Hamas, and we will not transfer a shekel to the PA that will go to the families of the Nazis in Gaza,” wrote Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on X, in a welcome message from Blinken . Tuesday to Israel.
But the biggest disagreement between the US and Israel concerns Netanyahu’s refusal to consider the creation of a Palestinian state. Arab states say that a commitment on this point is essential to convince them to participate and contribute to post-war planning for Gaza.
Israelis and Americans are far apart in this respect.
Palestinians have been divided politically and geographically since Hamas, a militant group that has vowed to destroy Israel, overran Gaza in 2007, giving internationally backed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas self-rule over isolated enclaves in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The US wants Abbas’s Palestinian Authority to undergo administrative reforms before establishing a unified government in Gaza and the West Bank as a precursor to a state.
Blinken and his aides believe that Netanyahu – or his successor if Israel were to hold early elections – will eventually realize that the Palestinian state is key to Israel’s long-term security, and will accept this because it will result in Iran and its allies are isolated. the greatest threat to Israel and the region.
“From Israel’s perspective, if you can have a future where they are integrated into the region, normalize relations with other countries, where they have the necessary guarantees, commitments and guarantees for their security – that is a very attractive path,” said Blinken. in Cairo, his last stop. “But it is also clear that this requires a path to a Palestinian state. We heard that from every country in the region.”
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, called Blinken’s comments “tone deaf.” For Israelis, the US push to revive negotiations for a Palestinian state is a sign that US leaders have not realized how Israeli public opinion has hardened on Palestinian issues in recent times. years, and especially since the Hamas attack on October 7.
The Israeli public felt “hurt, offended, scared and concerned that this is the way our allies are talking,” Oren said.
Ultimately, he said, American and Israeli interests do not always align. “Ultimately there is a limit because if (Biden) says stop, we are not going to stop,” he said.
Israeli leaders know they will have to make some concessions to the United States, Oren said. They have already made some, such as allowing limited amounts of fuel into the Gaza Strip, something Netanyahu adamantly refused to do in the early days of the war.
Biden has resisted calls from some in his Democratic Party to use American influence over Israel, mainly American military support, to try to force the issue.
The administration publicly spoke out against an initiative by some Democratic senators to tie U.S. military aid to Israel to ensure that Israel takes more concrete steps to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza. The administration says continuing to support Israel’s defenses is in the interest of U.S. national security. Since then, it has been declared a state of emergency twice to authorize new arms sales to Israel without congressional approval.
A new attempt to pressure the Biden administration and Israel is expected next week, when Senator Bernie Sanders schedules a vote on forcing the State Department to tell Congress whether Israel is complying with international humanitarian law.
The United States also has some real incentives to encourage Israel to improve its treatment of Palestinians, including in steering Israel and Israeli public opinion toward a long-term political solution. Israel knows that the US is likely to play a key role in rallying Arab financial and political support for post-war Gaza, and in Israel’s deep desire to normalize relations with Arab countries, said Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at Washington-based Israel Policy Forum.
But few expect major changes under Netanyahu. And some are skeptical of Biden.
“Blinken has become a political analyst who talks about things that may or may not happen,” said Hani al-Masri, director general of the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies.
The Biden administration “seems helpless against Netanyahu’s government,” al-Masri said. “What is happening in the case of Israel makes it seem like it is not serious, given all the positive statements it makes about Palestinian statehood and Palestinian rights.”
—-
Lidman reported from Tel Aviv.