WASHINGTON — Washington’s relationship with Beijing will face its biggest test since the two countries’ leaders met in November, as the United States tries to keep the Taiwan Strait calm after Taiwanese voters elected a new president this weekend.
At stake are the peace and stability of the 177-kilometer-wide stretch of water between the Chinese mainland and the self-governing island. Any armed conflict could pit Washington against Beijing and disrupt the global economy.
China fears that a victory for the frontrunner in Saturday’s elections would be a step towards independence and has suggested to Taiwanese voters that they could choose between peace and war.
Washington is ready to work with both Taipei and Beijing to avoid miscalculations and an escalation of tensions regardless of which presidential candidate wins, officials and observers say.
A senior White House official said the U.S. will keep channels of communication open with China and in close contact with Taiwan to “demonstrate both our support for Taiwan’s democratic processes and our strong commitment to peace, stability and the status quo.” strengthen.” The official spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity Thursday to discuss the plans.
President Joe Biden plans to send an unofficial delegation of former senior officials to the island shortly after the election. The US has no formal ties with Taiwan and sending an official delegation would anger Beijing, which views the island as Chinese territory.
Anticipating a “period of heightened tensions,” the official said the U.S. is preparing for different responses from Beijing depending on the election results, which could range from no response to military action.
On Saturday, the island of 23 million will elect a new president to replace Tsai Ing-wen, who has served the two-term limit. The election has attracted widespread attention as Beijing opposes front-runner Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, known for his pro-independence teachings. This has raised concerns that a Lai victory could provoke a military response from the mainland.
Beijing has pledged to unite with Taiwan, by force if necessary. Any military action could attract the United States, which provides Taiwan with military hardware and technology under a security treaty.
While Washington does not take sides on Taiwan’s sovereignty, it opposes any unilateral change to the status quo by either side. It has shown no official preference for any candidate.
Biden emphasized the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in California in November. Xi urged Biden to support China’s peaceful reunification with the island, telling him that “the Taiwan issue remains the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations.”
Regardless of who wins Saturday’s election, Washington will work with Taiwan’s new government to strengthen ties and focus on deterring military aggression from Beijing, lawmakers and observers say.
“The US will exchange notes with Taiwan to maintain stability and ensure Taiwan remains resilient in the future,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund.
“Regardless of who wins, the American people will stand with the people of Taiwan and Taiwan’s vibrant, beautiful democracy,” Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois said Wednesday during a discussion hosted by Politico. “And that’s on a bipartisan basis.” He is the top Democrat on a House committee on strategic competition between the US and the Chinese Communist Party.
Republican Rep. Andy Barr of Kentucky said during the same debate that the U.S. and all political parties in Taiwan believe in deterrence. “We will work with whoever wins this election to restore and strengthen that deterrent,” Barr said.
The overwhelming support among Taiwanese for maintaining the status quo means that U.S. policy will remain largely on course regardless of who wins the election, said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and chairman of Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Studies.
“No one wants to provoke a war, and the current situation is minimally acceptable to almost everyone, whether in Taiwan, mainland China or the United States,” Kennedy said.
All of Taiwan’s presidential candidates have come to see a solid relationship with the U.S. as a powerful deterrent against a hostile takeover of the island by Beijing, said Rorry Daniels, managing director of the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute.
If Lai is elected, he is unlikely to take drastic steps toward statehood as his party under Tsai has proven cautious and pragmatic, observers say.
“Tsai has built a positive image in Washington,” said John Dotson of the Washington-based think tank Global Taiwan Institute. “She has proven to be very moderate in office.”
While Tsai has angered Beijing by refusing to recognize Taiwan as part of China, she has also refrained from declaring independence. Lai was expected to follow in her footsteps. Washington would likely view a Lai presidency as a “third Tsai term,” Dotson said.
But a victory in Lai could provoke angry reactions from Beijing, including military exercises near the island. Experts say Beijing is likely to hold back as it is keen to protect the US-China relationship, especially after Biden’s meeting with Xi in November.
The challenge for Taipei and Washington would be to manage Beijing’s fears that Taiwan could “creep into independence,” said Daniels of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Lai is closely followed by Hou Yu-ih, the candidate of the opposition Kuomintang party. Beijing is accused of waging an influence campaign in favor of Hou, whose party considers Taiwan part of China, although not necessarily under Beijing’s rule. Still, a victory in the Kuomintang would not upend US policy, as public opinion on the island overwhelmingly favors the status quo, observers say.
Should Hou be elected, Washington, which has a history of cooperation with the Kuomintang, would be willing to engage with him to continue strengthening US-Taiwan relations. The U.S. should focus on other issues, said Brian Hart, a fellow of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
A warmer cross-Straits relationship could add new complexities to US-China relations. “There will have to be more coordination,” Daniels said. But because Beijing would likely put pressure on a Kuomintang government to move toward reunification, Washington could help Hou keep that pressure in check, she said.
The third candidate, Ko Wen-je of the newly formed Taiwan People’s Party, could pose Washington’s biggest challenge if elected. His party still needs to be tested and build a relationship with Washington, but observers note that Ko has shown interest in working with the US.
“The Biden administration has gone out of its way not to have a preference,” Hart said. “There is a chance no matter who wins. The US is really not trying to respond to this.”
“From a U.S. perspective, we want to see Taiwan invest more heavily in its defense to deter Chinese aggression,” Hart said.