The US is making its biggest push yet to get Israel and Hamas to halt fighting. Is it succeeding?
WASHINGTON — In Middle Eastern capitals, at the United Nations, from the White House and beyond, the Biden administration is making its most concentrated diplomatic push on the eight-month-old war in Gaza to convince Israeli and Hamas leaders to accept a proposed to accept a deal that will establish a ceasefire and release more hostages.
But a week after the start of the US pressure campaign, the world is still waiting for signs that the ceasefire call started by President Joe Biden on May 31 was working, by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas leaders toward a negotiating breakthrough.
For Israel and Hamas, the U.S. diplomatic press has become a public test to determine whether either side is willing to stop fighting — at least on terms that fall short of their professed objectives, whether the complete crushing of the militant group or for complete withdrawal. of Israeli troops from Gaza.
For Biden, who describes the proposal as Israeli, it is the latest high-profile test of US leadership as it tries to convince ally Israel and the militant group to give in to a conflict that is killing tens of thousands of people and raising regional tensions . takes up much of the government’s attention.
Here’s a look at the US-led push for a ceasefire in Gaza and where it stands:
It was not that the ceasefire proposal that Biden outlined in a televised address from the White House a week ago was initially new. It was Biden laying out the terms to the world and putting the full weight of the American presidency behind calling on both sides to make this deal.
The conditions Biden described for the first of three phases were very similar to the deal that American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators and Israel and Hamas have been negotiating for months.
There would be a six-week ceasefire during which Israeli forces withdrew from populated areas of Gaza. In exchange for Israel’s release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas would release a number of women, the elderly and wounded among the hostages it seized in the October 7 attacks in Israel that sparked the war.
The proposal calls for a full release of the remaining hostages and an Israeli withdrawal in later phases, although the terms are vague.
“Anyone who wants peace now must raise their voices and let leaders know they must accept this deal,” Biden said a week ago.
But by Friday, neither Israel nor Hamas had said yes. Netanyahu says the terms of the proposal are not as they have been publicly described and that Israel will never stop fighting to “destroy” the army and Hamas leadership.
In fact, said Nimrod Novik, a former senior adviser to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, Biden decided to “out” Netanyahu and let the Israeli public know how serious the potential is to bring out all the hostages.”
The US goal: “So that Israel would say ‘yes’ to its own proposal,” said Novik, now an Israeli fellow at the Washington-based Israel Policy Forum.
The Biden administration is not giving up in its efforts to get Hamas and Israel on board.
“The US is going to do everything it can, in one formulation or another, to keep pushing this. Until there’s nowhere left to go,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence official. He is now director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program.
At the UN, American diplomats ask the Security Council about this to adopt a resolution demanding a permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, despite Israel’s objections. Biden is sending Secretary of State Antony Blinken back to the Middle East next week for his eighth visit since the war began, a lightning tour of Middle Eastern capitals to promote the ceasefire proposal.
CIA director Bill Burns and Biden Middle East adviser Brett McGurk have also traveled to the region to drum up support for the deal and show key players how it could work.
The Group of Seven leading world economies supported the proposal. This includes countries with hostages held by militants in Gaza. Biden, Blinken and other U.S. officials are using the phone to rally support among Arab governments, from Egypt and Qatar to Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Many allies appear to welcome the president’s initiative to get ceasefire talks back on track after weeks of stalling, Panikoff said.
There is little evidence – so far – that American efforts have been sufficient to change political relations in Israel. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have vowed to topple the government if the Israeli prime minister accepts the proposal Biden has outlined.
Lagging in the opinion polls and facing an ongoing corruption trial, Netanyahu has little incentive to risk heading into new elections. Although opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered to support Netanyahu for a hostage deal, the two men are bitter enemies and there is little reason to believe an alliance will last.
Benny Gantz, a centrist member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, has called a press conference on Saturday where he is expected to make good on his earlier threat to resign this weekend if Netanyahu fails to release a plan for the war and Gaza.
Netanyahu will still have a majority in parliament if Gantz leaves. But the departure of Gantz, a former military chief and defense minister respected in Washington, would weaken Netanyahu’s international credibility and make him more dependent than ever on far-right coalition partners who believe Israel should reoccupy and resist Gaza. against the ceasefire. proposal.
Popular protests could be one of the few scenarios that could move Netanyahu toward a deal, Novik said. Alternatively, Novik argued, the mere threat of a public indictment by Biden could push Netanyahu to compromise, given the importance of the United States as an ally.
Hamas is expected to provide a formal response to the proposal Biden is pushing in the coming days, according to what the Qataris and Egyptians, who are handling direct communications with Hamas officials during the negotiations, told US officials this week.
Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan told reporters in Beirut this week Biden’s announcement was “positive” but said the group could not accept any deal without Israel’s guarantee of a permanent ceasefire, a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, a prisoner exchange and other conditions.
While Hamas’s supreme leader and other political figures are based abroad, Hamas must also pass on any proposals to Yahya Sinwar – whose opinion comes first – and other military leaders in Gaza. They inhabit tunnels 30 meters or more underground and are believed to have surrounded themselves with foreign hostages to discourage attacks.
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Josef Federman contributed from Jerusalem.