The Ukraine counter-offensive: How, where and when Zelensky’s forces will hit the Russians

We all know it’s coming.

For months, Ukraine’s generals pored over maps, studied intelligence, and shook the pieces as they tried to devise a plan to reclaim their country.

Meanwhile, Kiev’s allies have been searching their store cupboards for any spare parts that could help.

The moment of truth is now upon us. Russia’s winter offensive is well underway. The muddy soil of Ukraine is starting to harden.

Soon it will be time for the counterattack.

Here, MailOnline analyzes the what, where, when and how of the upcoming offensive, revealing why it will shape Ukraine’s future…

WHAT’S THE PLAN?

Ukraine is believed to be assembling up to 100,000 men in at least 12, but perhaps as many as 18 combat brigades to face the Russians.

They are believed to have been given about 200 Western tanks, 800 AFVs and 150 artillery guns to arm nine of those brigades.

The status of Russia is less clear. Based on leaked casualty figures, Putin could have as few as 100,000 men or even 290,000 in Ukraine.

The same leaks suggest he only has about 500 tanks left on the battlefield, but may be getting more out of storage. The number of armored vehicles and artillery guns is not clear.

Ukraine’s battle plans are a closely guarded secret, but Mick Ryan, a general recently retired from the Australian army, told MailOnline that Kiev has three broad options.

First, they could launch a single major attack, using everything they’ve got; second, they could divide that force between simultaneous attacks in the south and east; or third, they could decide on small-scale attacks in both the south and the east, which are not coordinated.

General Stephen Twitty, retired from the US military, believes Ukraine will choose option three – a tactic he refers to as “eating the apple one bite at a time.”

“Ukraine will go with what has worked for them in the past,” he said. “What the Ukrainians have been successful at is small-scale maneuvers using infantry, armor and artillery to attack Russian forces in small areas and gain ground.”

General Ryan thinks it will be a mix of options two and three.

A large-scale attack is unlikely, he predicts, because it would be difficult to organize and easy for the Russians to spot and defend — but he believes Ukraine’s plan will be unlike anything we’ve seen so far.

“This is going to look very different because the challenge is different,” he said. “They will have to break through obstacle zones, which they have not done before.

“One thing the Ukrainians have mastered in this war amazes us.”

WHERE WILL UKRAINE DO?

The Russians believe Melitopol – a small town in southern Ukraine captured during the early days of the war – is the most likely target.

Taking it back would break the “land bridge” between Putin’s forces to the south and east, clear the way for the recapture of Mariupol and bring Crimea within HIMARS’ range.

And in recent weeks, Ukraine has stepped up its bombing of military targets in the city with long-range missiles and artillery, which seems to confirm those suspicions.

Attacks in the eastern Luhansk region are also likely as Ukraine seeks to ease pressure in places like Bakhmut and take back its industrial core in the Donbas.

But maybe not all is as it seems.

Surprise will be the key to victory, says General Ryan, because Russia does not have enough men to defend its entire 1,200-kilometer front line.

And the men it has vary greatly in quality, from elite paratroopers to conscripts with barely a day’s training.

That means the line will have weaknesses, and the road to Ukraine’s victory lies in finding and exploiting them.

If they can trick the Russians into placing their best units around a city they don’t actually intend to attack, that will help.

General Twitty added, “You are talking about 800 miles of defense lines, there is no army that can [cover] 800 miles. The key will be to find weak spots in that line.”

WHEN DOES THE ATTACK BEGIN?

The simple answer is: we don’t know. But we do have some clues.

First, an attack is unlikely as long as the ground is muddy. Ukraine’s sods freeze in winter, thaw to a slush in early spring, and harden again as the weather warms — usually in late April and early May.

Second, Ukraine is unlikely to attack until it has received all the weapons promised and its troops trained to use them – a process expected to be completed around the same time.

But a third element, General Ryan and General Twitty both say, is getting the logistics in order to support the offensive once it gets going.

Given the number of different systems Ukraine now uses, that will be extremely complicated – and how long it will take is anyone’s guess.

“I feel like they won’t leave until the logistics are in order,” General Twitty said.

‘Sustainability will be key. That means spare parts, fuel, ammunition.

“Success will depend on their ability to take all this new equipment, assemble it and make it work for them on the battlefield.”

HOW WILL UKRAINE CARRY OUT THE ATTACKS?

Since last year, Russian troops have begun building rows of tank traps, trenches, minefields and barbed wire fences that now stretch the entire length of the front line.

Ukraine’s first task will be to break that line.

For that they have been given mine clearance vehicles, explosives, hydraulic bridges and bulldozers.

Speed ​​will be vital. Russian artillery will be pre-sighted at spots on the line, and if they hang around too long, shells will crash on top.

Once through the line, they will have to face whatever Russian troops are left to defend the line.

General Ryan expects these to be conscripts, Wagner mercenaries and other low-skilled soldiers that Russia considers expendable.

Next comes Russia’s mobile defenses – units that are well away from the front, but are ready to go into battle whenever and wherever the barricades are broken.

General Ryan believes that Russia will use whatever elite troops it has left for this task, such as marines and paratroopers.

Provided Ukraine can stop them, the next task is to consolidate their forces and attack again as soon as possible – generating momentum that could lead to defeat.

“You want to overwhelm, shock, and take advantage of the Russians,” said General Ryan. “If you can do that over and over again, you can make a breakthrough.”

WHAT IS ZELENSKY’S GOAL?

President Zelensky has made his goal clear: to drive Russia out of every bit of occupied territory, including Crimea.

That may be the ultimate goal, but hardly anyone expects this offensive to reach the southern peninsula. So what can we expect?

General Ryan says the goal for Ukraine should be to retake large parts of its south and east from Russia in a way that shows it has regained the initiative.

For General Twitty, the goal should be to ensure that the territory they recapture remains in their hands and not immediately taken back.

“Last year the Ukrainians recaptured Kherson and part of Kharkov. They consolidated their gains and held on to them,” he said.

“Their goals should be the same this time: to take back parts of the territory, which is a success in itself, but then hold on to those gains.”

Both generals expect the war to last beyond the end of this year, so another key goal will be to convince Ukraine’s Western allies that all the equipment they donated was worth it – because Kiev will need more to to get through 2024.

And if Zelensky is to fulfill his promise to liberate Crimea, he will again need more – perhaps including fighter jets and naval ships.

He will have to rely on success on this offensive to inspire Western leaders to donate that kit and position his troops for a future attack.

If Ukraine succeeds, a total victory over Russia is at stake. But failure can mean closing the door forever.

The fate of Ukraine and the end of the war will be decided in the coming months.