The state pension would reach £13,236 per year by 2030 if the triple lock remains in place

The annual state pension could exceed £13,000 a year by 2030 if the current triple lock arrangement is retained, analysis claims.

According to media reports, both the Conservative and Labor parties are expected to pledge their support for the pension scheme in their manifestos for the upcoming general election.

Under the triple lock, state pensions could reach £13,236.10 in 2029/2030, after more than £12,000 in 2026/2027, according to research from investment platform AJ Bell.

However, an analysis by the Mail on Sunday warns that from 2027 more pensioners could find themselves in the lowest income tax bracket, even if the state pension is their only income.

The warning comes after Chancellor Jeremy Hunt confirmed the Government will maintain the £12,570 tax-free personal allowance until 2028.

The triple lock, introduced by the coalition government in 2011, ensures that the value of the state pension is not exceeded by the cost of living or income growth of the working population.

This means that the AOW is increased by the highest average income growth, inflation or by 2.5 percent per year.

AJ Bell’s analysis was based on estimates that will be used to determine the state pension in coming years.

Tom Selby, director of public policy at the firm, said: ‘Pensioners will no doubt rejoice that both major parties appear ready to recommit to the ‘triple-lock’ state pension before the next parliament, with the gold-plated pledge potentially pressure on the economy will increase. value of the state pension above £13,000 per year by the end of this decade.

“Given how crucial the votes of older people are to winning a general election, it is no surprise that both the Conservatives and Labor appear to be taking the safety priority on the triple-lock,” Selby said.

‘The policy has become a totem for ‘doing the right thing by pensioners’, with the debate over the state pension often limited solely to politicians’ commitment to increasing benefits by the highest average income growth, inflation or 2.5 percent.’

From April, the full state pension will rise by 8.5 per cent to £11,502 a year, or £221.20 a week, under the new flat rate, while those who retired before 2016 will see their pension rise to £169, 50 per week.

However, people on the base rate also get top-ups, called S2P or Serps, if they were earned earlier in life.

Currently the full state benefit is £10,600, or £203.85 for those who retired after 2016, while those who reached state pension age before April 2016 receive £156.20 per week.

According to AJ Bell, the move to maintain the triple lock is one of relative political security in the short term, but could lead to ‘intergenerational unfairness’ if planned increases in the retirement age are accelerated.

Selby said: ‘While the policy is understandably popular, it remains completely aimless, with neither major party clearly stating how much they think the state pension should be worth.’

‘The next government must set out a clear plan for the state pension, both in terms of what a ‘fair’ value is, perhaps as a percentage of average income, and in terms of the length of time that pensioners should receive it on average. ‘

‘For this necessary reform to take place, politicians will have to show courage and go beyond the current ‘Will they? Won’t they?’ triple-lock debate,” Selby added.

‘The state pension remains the foundation on which people’s retirement plans are built, so embedding at least some certainty into the system is vital to help Britons plan with confidence.’