- Manchester City have failed to win in their last four Premier League matches
- Pep Guardiola's team receives more shots from their opponents per match
- Manchester City have fallen, but Gary Neville is wrong when he says they are complacent. Listen to It all starts
Let's get this out of the way first: Manchester City will probably win the Premier League this season.
Yes, they are seven points behind Liverpool. Yes, they haven't won in four times. Yes, Pep Guardiola has never failed to win five on the trot. Yes, a team as bad as Manchester United is only three points behind.
Taking all that into account, City will most likely win four titles in a row.
They have the best players, they have the best manager, they have the know-how. It is not without reason that they are still the bookmakers' favorite.
However, none of this changes the fact that City are a little wobbly.
Manchester City have failed to win in their last four Premier League matches
It comes as the Cityzens are also facing more shots from opponents than they ever did under Pep Guardiola
They suffered a 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa on Wednesday, with Villa now above City in the Premier League standings
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It's not just the defeat to Aston Villa, which was a 1-0 defeat to Unai Emery's side. It goes further than that.
The trends are there. Guardiola knows it too. He has accused his players of grinning like Cheshire cats and needing a shake-up.
As you're about to see, this is coming.
City are facing more shots this season
Three of the five games in which they have conceded the most shots under Guardiola have come since May.
City have faced the most shots in three games this season under Guardiola
They are also facing more shots per game this season and have also had the fewest number of shots this season compared to any other season under Guardiola
City concede the highest expected goals per game and have also risen to the highest number under Guardiola this season
City are conceding the highest number of expected goals (xGA) per game than last time they failed to win the title in 2019/20, and the gap between their xG and that of their opponents is the smallest ever under Guardiola.
Villa not only had the most shots (and conceded the fewest) against a City team under Pep, but also won the ball in the final third 13 times – the most in the PL against Guardiola's City. Again, it's not a one-time thing.
The three times teams have won the most ball in City's third game in a PL match – and four of the top seven – have come since May.
Teams are starting to realize that City don't like it. Sit back and let them play, they will kill you eventually. Go for it and who knows, you might just have a chance. Just look at Spurs.
Aston Villa won the ball 13 times in the final third against City in their 1-0 win on Wednesday
They also won the ball in City's final third more times than any other side against Pep Guardiola's team since he took charge of the club.
Due to the departure of Ilkay Gundogan, Julian Alvarez made fewer ball contacts and fewer passes
With Gundogan no longer at the club, Alvarez has not made as many touches or passes this season, but has scored four goals in 15 Premier League appearances.
Rodri is of course the key to this. The three games in which City lost the most ball in the back third occurred when Rodri was not playing or at center back. Rodri has not played in the last five games that City have lost.
It's not just Rodri. Kevin De Bruyne's injury and Ilkay Gundogan's departure have been crucial. Without Gundogan, City lose control. Julien Alvarez is an attacker in midfield. He is more direct on and off the ball.
It means City are taking more risks with the ball. They used to bore teams with ruthless passing, but they can't do that now because they don't have the players to do it.
Against Villa, two central defenders played in midfield. It is once again up to Pep to create a new way of working.