The real-life Day After Tomorrow: The Gulf Stream could COLLAPSE at ‘any time’ from 2025 thanks to climate change – plunging Europe into a deep freeze

In the Hollywood blockbuster “The Day After Tomorrow,” global warming causes ocean currents around the world to stop, triggering a new ice age on Earth.

That may have been science fiction, but scientists say the terrifying prophecy could soon become a reality.

That’s because new research warns that the Atlantic Ocean currents that power the Gulf Stream could collapse “any time” from 2025 onwards thanks to climate change.

Formally known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the current is the driving force that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the UK and is responsible for mild winters in Western Europe.

However, if it were to collapse, the impact would be devastating.

Europe would be plunged into a deep freeze, while most of Africa, the Caribbean and South American countries such as Colombia, Peru and Bolivia would experience skyrocketing temperatures.

Scientists at the University of Copenhagen say such a scenario is “95 percent certain” by the end of this century if current greenhouse gas emissions continue.

It’s more likely that without significant action to address climate change, it will happen in 2057, the experts added, though there’s a chance the collapse could happen as early as two years.

The ocean currents play a crucial role in the current Earth’s climate as they redistribute heat, cold and rainfall between the tropics and the northernmost parts of the Atlantic region.

“Closing the AMOC could have very serious consequences for the Earth’s climate, for example by changing the way heat and precipitation are distributed globally,” says Professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

“While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the world as a whole warms and heat waves become more common, this closure will contribute to greater warming in the tropics, where rising temperatures have already led to challenging living conditions.”

He added: “Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible.”

The researchers used ocean temperature data from the past 150 years and combined it with innovative new statistical tools to reach their conclusion.

However, it is at odds with the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which cited climate model simulations that suggested such a change in the AMOC was highly unlikely this century.

The Danish researchers’ prediction is based on monitoring early warning signals that ocean currents show when they become unstable.

Although these have been reported before, the experts say that the development of advanced statistical methods has only now made it possible to predict when a collapse will occur.

Analysis: The researchers took ocean temperature data from the past 150 years and combined it with innovative new statistical tools to reach their conclusion

Science fiction: In the Hollywood blockbuster ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ (pictured), global warming causes ocean currents around the world to stop, triggering a new ice age on Earth

The researchers analyzed sea surface temperatures in a specific part of the North Atlantic from 1870 to today.

They called these “fingerprints” which give an indication of the strength of the AMOC or Thermohaline Circulation – which has only been properly measured in the past 15 years.

“Using new and improved statistical tools, we have made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a collapse of the thermohaline circulation is most likely, something we would not have been able to do before,” says Professor Susanne Ditlevsen from the University of Copenhagen.

Until the 1800s, the AMOC was relatively stable. However, the flow decreased after the end of the so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ in 1850.

This caused the temperature to drop so low that the River Thames completely froze over, allowing Londoners to cross the waterway on foot.

The last total closure of the AMOC is believed to have occurred at the end of the last true ice age, about 12,000 years ago, when temperatures in Western Europe plummeted by as much as 10°C.

The new research is published in the journal Nature communication.

What would the world look like if the Gulf Stream collapsed?

If the AMOC collapsed, much less heat would reach Western Europe and the region would be plunged into very harsh winters, the kind of scenario depicted in extreme fashion in the movie The Day After Tomorrow.

Until the 1800s it was relatively stable, but the flow decreased after the so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ ended in 1850.

Temperatures dropped so low that the River Thames completely froze over and records show Londoners crossing the waterway on foot.

The last closure was probably at the end of the last ice age, 12,000 years ago, and caused a temperature drop of 5°C to 10°C in Western Europe.

In the event of another collapse, not only would European winters become much colder, but summer droughts, storms and heat waves would likely become more frequent.

Sea levels could rise to nearly 20 inches around the North Atlantic basin, which hugs the US east coast.

This would eventually push people living along the coast further inland to escape flooding. There would be widespread collapse of deep-sea ecosystems.

In the US, Florida would be particularly hard hit if the flow of water to the north was stopped, as it would collect on the state’s coastline.

An investigation published last year we looked at the specific consequences of the discontinuation of the AMOC for the UK.

The Little Ice Age, a centuries-long cold period that lasted until about 1850. Experts believe that as the North Atlantic began to warm towards the end of the Little Ice Age, fresh water disrupted the system. Pictured is Thames Frost Fair, 1683-1684, by Thomas Wyke

Researchers at the University of Exeter made a computer model and found that in 2080 it would be 3.4 °C colder than last year.

Rainfall during the growing season is expected to decrease by 123 mm, she added.

This, Ars Technica reports, is enough to reduce UK farmland from 32 percent to just seven percent, with major implications for food production.

The effects would not be felt in Europe and the United States, with forecasts also predicting that the collapse of the AMOC would also increase drought in Africa’s Sahel.