AAs we head into the second half of the season at high speed, even the best NFL teams have issues they need to solve before the playoffs. Because in the postseason, every mistake is magnified and every big play is bigger.
So here are five of the NFL’s most credible contenders, and the one potentially fatal mistake that could take each of these squads out of the race to Super Bowl LIX. The list is far from exhaustive – there are plenty of other teams that could win the title – feel free to add your own picks and their weaknesses below.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
Weakness: A lack of explosive attacking playmakers.
The Chiefs look like Bill Belichick’s best New England teams. Whatever weakness you think you can exploit, they will instead develop another part of their game to beat you. And that’s why these Chiefs are undefeated. But they are undefeated despite a serious lack of explosive play, especially in the passing game. This season, Patrick Mahomes has just four completions of 20 or more air yards on 14 attempts for 168 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions and a passer rating of 77.1.
To put that in perspective, Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers leads the NFL with 15 such wins, and only two qualified quarterbacks – Jacoby Brissett of the New England Patriots and Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns – have fewer than Mahomes. Neither Brissett nor Watson are starters on their own teams.
Mahomes has a lot more going for him than Brissett and Watson, and the Chiefs’ running game, defense and special teams are keeping them afloat. But there has to be some concern in Kansas City about the lack of playmakers who can put opposing defenses on edge when it really matters. If the Chiefs face a more explosive offense in the postseason and Steve Spagnuolo’s stellar defense can’t answer, what will the Chiefs’ response be?
Detroit Lions (8-1)
Weakness: A pass rush that might not be good enough.
It’s hard to bet against the Lions after overcoming a 23-7 halftime deficit and Jared Goff’s five interceptions beat a very competitive Houston Texans team on Sunday evening. But as we said, We’re talking about the playoffs. And in the playoffs, every mistake is magnified. For the Lions, it’s a pass rush that has clearly suffered since elite edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a broken tibia and fibula in Week 6. With Hutchinson, the Lions had 18 sacks. Only nine were successful in his absence.
The Lions’ pressure is actually slightly better without Hutchinson, but that’s because defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has dialed up the blitzes much higher — from 31.6% to 38.9% of their defensive snaps coming into the Texans game. That’s all well and good, but if you blitz at a higher rate you are more vulnerable because there are fewer players to cover the receivers. And if a defense gets fewer sacks due to more pressure, that means defenders aren’t getting to the quarterback as often. Yes, pressure is important too, but sacks stop the game.
The recent trade for edge defender Za’Darius Smith could go some way to filling the crater left by Hutchinson’s departurebut if not, that defense could be much more vulnerable to high-level passing games as the season progresses. Head coach Dan Campbell’s optimism has done wonders, but it can’t put the quarterbacks on the ground.
Buffalo notes (8-2)
Weakness: Having to build the entire plane out of Josh Allen… again.
Buffalo’s Sean McDermott should be in the running for coach of the year as this would be a rebuilding season for the team. Instead, these bills look as dangerous as anyone if everything works. A defense with a lot of new pieces and an entirely new secondary has done quite well, and the offense with Allen could be a serious problem for any defense.
But throughout the Allen era, which actually started in 2020 when he took his game to the highest level, the Bills tended to rely too much on their quarterback. This season is no different. James Cook and Ray Davis are good running backs, but Allen has been the team’s best rusher for years. And as much as Allen can win games as a passer, he hasn’t had an alpha receiver in a long time. This season, the trade for former Browns receiver Amari Cooper has helped a bit, but first-round rookie Keon Coleman still struggles with consistency, and the team’s best receiver is betting master Khalil Shakir.
There’s no doubt that this is a brilliantly coached team on both sides of the ball, but relying too much on Allen has kept the Bills from their Super Bowl goals time and time again in recent years – usually at the altar of the Chiefs. And while Allen wouldn’t be the first quarterback to go on a thermonuclear streak in the playoffs to capture a Lombardi Trophy, that’s a lot to expect — no matter how good that quarterback is.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
Weakness: What if Russell Wilson is a mirage?
The one thing you’ll mainly hear when it comes to Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is that he’s never had a losing season and this is his 18th year at the helm. That is a remarkable record. But Tomlin has had to piece things together at quarterback in recent seasons, basically since Ben Roethlisberger started to decline in his final years with the Steelers.
The 2024 Steelers bypassed the draft to solve their quarterback problem and instead traded for Justin Fields, signing Wilson after he was released by the Denver Broncos. Fields was seen as a raw quarterback who needed the right environment, and Wilson was seen as the veteran whose best days were over. Tomlin started the season with Fields as the starter, but went with Wilson in Week 7.
Since Wilson became a starter, the Steelers are averaging 30.3 points and 382 yards per game, compared to 20.7 points and 298 yards per game with Fields. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith seems to understand what the Wilson offense should be: a dynamic run game, with Wilson’s deep ball shots off play action. That’s what worked for Wilson in Seattle, and that’s what Sean Payton didn’t give him in Denver.
This could push Pittsburgh to a place it hasn’t been in a while… but Wilson has also been known to struggle at times, and if he doesn’t stay within himself, the Steelers could easily rely on defense again and special teams. to win them wins.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Weakness: A defense that is falling apart.
In 2023, the Ravens had the NFL’s best defense in almost every way. She led the league in FTN’s Defensive DVOAa measure that maps the efficiency adjusted by the opponent. They led the NFL with fewest points allowed, at 280. They tied with the Browns and New York Jets for the league’s lowest yards per game average, at 4.6. They allowed a league-high 19 passing touchdowns, and they had 15 interceptions. Only the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers faced more total pressure than Baltimore’s 308. This was an extremely dominant unit from front to back.
Now, without former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who left to become head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, and with rookie DC Zach Orr as his replacement, the Ravens rank 16th in Defensive DVOA. They have allowed the third most points in the NFL at 253. They have allowed 5.7 yards per play, which is tied with the New York Giants and Patriots for fourth in the league. They have allowed 22 passing touchdowns (the most in the league) and they have only six interceptions. Last season, opposing quarterbacks posted a passer rating of 77.9 against Baltimore’s defense, behind only the New York Jets. This season, they have allowed a passer rating of 102.0, which is sixth-worst.
The Ravens are still a threat to the Super Bowl because their offense is firing on all cylinders, and Lamar Jackson could win his second consecutive MVP and third overall. But at this rate, the Ravens offense will have to carry defense for the rest of the season.