The NHS needs to treat at least 10% more non-emergency hospital cases every month if it is to reduce the large backlog caused by the pandemic. new analysis.
From February 2020 to October 2022, the waiting list for non-urgent care in England grew by 2.6 million cases – an expected 1.8 million more than if the pandemic had not hit.
NHS England’s recovery plan aims to increase capacity by 30% compared to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, but figures published on Thursday showed the waiting list in England was 7.6 million, just 1.3% less than the month before.
Researchers from the Universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde examined the number of referrals awaiting treatment between January 2012 and October 2022.
They calculated that from the start of the pandemic to October 31, 2022, there were an estimated 10.2 million fewer referrals for elective care. They then modeled how many of these missing patients could return for care to estimate the potential impact on waiting lists.
NHS trusts would need to cover more than 10% to reverse the rising trend in waiting lists, the authors conclude. “Even if the ambitious target of a 30% capacity increase over the next three years is achieved, it will still take several years (after the end of 2025) to close the backlog.”
The research comes as monthly data from NHS England, published on Thursday, showed the health service is slipping on a number of key targets. Despite a small drop, patients are facing ‘unacceptably long’ waiting times for care, health experts have warned. New figures show the NHS is slipping on some of its key targets.
NHS England data for November published on Thursday showed that despite a small drop, more than six million people were waiting for treatment and hundreds of thousands have been waiting for more than a year.
About 6.39 million patients were waiting for 7.61 million treatments, up from 6.44 million patients and 7.71 million treatments at the end of October. This is the second month that the waiting list has decreased.
But the number of patients waiting more than 18 months to start routine treatment at the end of November stood at 11,168, compared with 10,506 at the end of October. In total, more than 355,000 patients wait more than a year for hospital treatment.
Patients needing urgent care were also less likely to be seen, the data show. The NHS recovery plan sets a target for 76% of emergency department patients to be admitted, transferred or discharged within four hours. But in December 2023, 69.4% of patients in England were seen in A&E within four hours, up from 69.7% in November. And more than 44,000 patients had to wait more than 12 hours in English emergency departments before being admitted to hospital, up from 42,854 in November.
Ambulance response times have also been delayed. On average, ambulances took eight minutes and 44 seconds to respond to the most urgent calls from people with life-threatening illnesses or injuries in December, compared to eight minutes and 32 seconds in November and significantly longer than the target standard response time of seven minutes.
In January 2023, the Prime Minister announced a plan to prevent another NHS winter crisis. He pledged to create a further 5,000 beds in English hospitals before winter and reduce bed occupancy. But the figures show there were only 4,203 additional beds well into the winter, while bed occupancy has risen to 93.2% since Christmas.
NHS leaders admitted progress was “decelerating” in some areas and called for more funding.
Sir Julian Hartley, the chief executive of NHS Providers, said: “While progress on key recovery targets in emergency care has slowed, NHS leaders are still aiming to achieve them by the end of March. Better funding for services and an urgent solution to industrial action are vital to ensure the NHS can get through this winter and beyond.”
Sarah Woolnough, chief executive of the King’s Fund, said: “The NHS is still not meeting the majority of its key performance targets this winter…Patients are still not receiving an acceptable level of service.
“To end this cycle of poor performance, the government must make long-term decisions to get services back on track all year round. This includes making health and care more attractive to build a career in, and strengthening care outside of hospital, such as primary, community and social care services.