The looming war so gruesome it would make Gaza look like child’s play: MARK DUBOWITZ’s grave warning about the imminent clash that might even wake Sleepy Joe Biden
Less than 72 hours before the first debate on the US presidential elections, Joe Biden’s White House is tottering.
On Sunday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown made the extraordinary claim that America will not protect Israel in a war with Lebanese Hezbollah terrorists.
“The US is unlikely to be able to help Israel defend itself against a broader Hezbollah war, any more than it has helped Israel counter an Iranian barrage of missiles and drones,” Brown told reporters.
On Monday, US officials returned and reportedly issued a rare warning to the Iran-backed terror group through intermediaries.
Two US officials told Politico that Hezbollah cannot count on America to stop Israel from launching an attack on Lebanese territory. The officials said the terrorists “must understand that Washington will help Israel defend itself” against any counterattack.
Reasonable enough. After all, we do not negotiate with terrorists.
President Biden in Washington, August 2021.
Hezbollah training exercises in southern Lebanon on May 21, 2023.
Israeli artillery unit fires during a military exercise near the border with Lebanon on November 2, 2023.
But the bungling of officialdom is inexcusable. This is not a time for the White House to send mixed signals.
This week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview that his forces will soon wind down the “intensive” phase of their offensive in Gaza – and step up operations in the north of the country, on the border with Lebanon.
For seven months, Hezbollah terrorists have fired thousands of rockets and missiles at communities in northern Israel, forcing some 60,000 residents to evacuate.
Meanwhile, new reports suggest Tehran’s mullahs were shipping more weapons directly to Lebanon on flights from Iran to fuel their terror support base.
Hezbollah is now equipped with thousands of high-tech drones and mortars, and an arsenal of more than 200,000 additional missiles and rockets.
That is ten times the ammunition Hezbollah had during the last major war with Israel in 2006.
The Shiite Muslim extremists also have an army of at least 20,000, although some experts say the actual number could be five times that if reservists are included.
In contrast, Hamas was believed to have fewer than 25,000 fighters at the start of the war with Israel.
Hezbollah conducted a training exercise in southern Lebanon last May.
So make no mistake: the Middle East is now closer to all-out regional war than it was when Israel launched direct strikes with Iran in the months following the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks.
And if this powder keg on the border with Lebanon explodes, the current conflict in Gaza will seem like a walk in the park.
A war with Hezbollah would result in thousands of Israeli and Lebanese casualties.
Iran would likely intervene and fire its missiles and drones directly at Israel, as it did in April.
The Islamic Republic would also have the power to unleash its other terror proxies from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and the West Bank on Israel.
Despite its enviable ‘Iron Dome’ technology, Israel does not have sufficient air defenses to defend all its borders simultaneously.
And with so much activity in the skies, key energy, military and transportation locations would likely be prioritized over, say, civilian communities.
If Israelis across the country were not defended, they would have to spend months in shelters while their towns and villages came under daily attack.
Much of Lebanon – communities far more prosperous and better developed than the crumbling towns and villages of Gaza – would be utterly destroyed.
The IDF would likely raze neighborhoods, hunt Hezbollah’s vast weapons caches, and root out terrorist foot soldiers hiding among civilians.
A collision has been a long time coming.
Israeli attacks on Beirut, Lebanon, during the 2006 war.
Hezbollah fighters in 2023.
In September 2004, the United Nations adopted a resolution demanding the “dissolution and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias” as part of its call for the national government to exercise control over all armed groups on its territory.
Then in August 2006, in the wake of a Hezbollah-induced war with Israel, the UN pathetically reiterated that there would be “no weapons.” [in Lebanon] without the consent of the Government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the Government of Lebanon.”
But almost twenty years later, Hezbollah’s horde has grown into the equivalent of a medium-sized European army.
Despite some 10,000 UN peacekeepers from 49 countries stationed along the Israel-Lebanon border, Hezbollah is more emboldened than ever.
Why? Because neither the UN forces nor the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) – backed by $2.5 billion in US security assistance since 2006 – will risk a confrontation with this Iranian-backed proxy.
But after waiting two decades for the international community to act on its resolutions mandating the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel may not be able to wait any longer.
As Iran rallies its regional allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen to achieve its ultimate goal of eliminating the Jewish State, Israel is quickly reaching a point where it has no choice but to fight for its survival.
Mark Dubowitz is CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. In 2019, he was sanctioned by Iran for his plea.