The lesser-known swing state where one man’s vote could determine if Trump or Kamala wins the 2024 election

A Republican senator in Omaha, Nebraska, is standing up to pressure from his own party to change the way the state awards electoral votes, a move that could determine who wins the presidential election in November.

Nebraska is, along with Maine, one of two states that distribute electoral votes by constituency. All other states use a winner-take-all system.

But while the Nebraska GOP wants to move to awarding all electoral votes to the state’s winner, Sen. Mike McDonnell has dismissed the proposal as a tie-breaking vote.

Under Nebraska’s current system, Donald Trump is virtually certain to win four of the state’s five electoral votes, while Democratic-leaning Omaha (where McDonnell represents) could deliver Kamala Harris one electoral vote.

This exact result was achieved in the 2020 election, when Joe Biden received an Electoral College vote despite losing the state by more than 19 points.

With polls showing the 2024 race deadlocked with less than two months until Election Day, analysts say there is a possibility that one vote could be crucial in a likely scenario where the election ends in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.

McDonnell represents Omaha and its suburbs, which have typically voted Democratic, while the vast majority of the rest of the state is staunchly Republican.

McDonnell is seen as the main opponent preventing Nebraska from changing its rules in the state Legislature, while two other Republican senators who have not yet committed are expected to follow his lead if he changes, the New York Times.

To win the presidential election, a presidential candidate must receive at least 270 votes, according to the Electoral College.

If neither party does so, the fate of the nation rests in the hands of the House of Representatives, which awards votes based on the support of each state delegation rather than the total number of voting members of Congress.

This would almost certainly give Trump a second term in the White House, as Republicans control more delegations in the House of Representatives.

Although statistically unlikely, Nebraska’s one electoral college vote could determine history.

Kamala Harris could hypothetically lose the presidential election by two electoral votes, 270-268, if Nebraska changes its election rules

Under Nebraska’s current rules, Donald Trump won just four of the state’s five electoral votes in 2020, despite winning the statewide race by nearly 20 points

Omaha’s superior Electoral College votes could become nationally significant if Harris wins the “Blue Wall” — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — but loses the other swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

In that case, the one Electoral College vote would make the difference between a 269-269 tie and a 270-268 Harris victory.

Despite mounting pressure to change his position, McDonnell remained steadfast, his spokesman Barry Rubin told The New York Times.

“Senator McDonnell has heard many compelling arguments for and against, but so far he remains opposed,” he said.

“He would only consider a move if someone gave him a compelling reason why it made sense given the winner-takes-all situation.”

Rubin added that McDonnell has not reached out to the Trump or Harris campaigns for political favors in exchange for his vote, stressing that “nobody is offering anybody anything.”

Despite mounting pressure to change his position on changing Nebraska’s voting system, McDonnell has steadfastly maintained his no vote.

Election forecasters say Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially at an impasse as the presidential election enters its final weeks

Although McDonnell’s spokesman insisted the senator would not trade his vote for political favors, he is reportedly running for mayor of Omaha next year.

While McDonnell has not changed his mind so far, the pressure on him to exert influence is unlikely to abate in the coming weeks. The Nebraska Legislature can still amend the law up until the day before the election and have it ready when the polls open.

The pressure campaign on McDonnell ramped up this week when South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham visited the Nebraska legislature.

He reportedly arranged a meeting with Gov. Jim Pillen and several senators, including McDonnell, during which Trump called lawmakers and urged them to change their rules.

Pillens’ team has indicated that he will call a special session to change the state’s electoral college system if he understands there is sufficient commitment to do so.