It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking about the knockout stage of a World Cup even before the group stage has started.
Even the England players had one eye on a possible eighth meeting with Germany. “If everything goes according to plan, we can meet them in the quarterfinals,” said Georgia Stanway on the eve of the tournament.
After two weeks, Germany go home, giving England a smoother path to the semi-finals than they could have ever imagined.
Germany is one of three teams in the top 10 to be eliminated. Brazil and Canada are the others and both were on the English side of the draw.
If England gets past Nigeria (40th) in this round, it will face Colombia (25th) or Jamaica (43rd) in the quarter-finals. From there, a semi-final against France or Australia seems likely, but this World Cup has taught us to expect the unexpected.
The England players had one eye on a possible eighth meeting with Germany two weeks ago
But Germany goes home, giving England a smoother path to the semi-finals
That a team like Morocco, ranked 72nd in the world, can progress to the knockouts at the expense of a superpower like Germany, is the best proof that the expansion of this tournament from 24 to 32 teams was justified.
England will not think beyond their last 16 game and they will be wary of the threats posed by Nigeria. There is nothing to lose for the African side. They have already shown they can compete with higher ranked countries, beating Australia and playing Olympic champion Canada in their group.
The lionesses are under pressure and they can’t afford to be complacent. What makes this tournament different from previous ones is that the lower ranked countries are harder to beat.
They are better at defending, more tactically astute, and can frustrate the bigger teams by using a center block. This means there is little space in the center of the field, making it difficult to play through.
This was a problem for England against Haiti and to some extent against Denmark. In both games they had more than 70 percent possession, but were forced to go wide as the central areas were overstretched.
England will not think beyond their last 16 game against Nigeria and know the threat they pose
The pressure is on Sarina Wiegman and they can’t afford to be complacent
This in turn made it more difficult for England striker Alessia Russo to get hold of the ball.
Sarina Wiegman’s solution was to change the formation for the final group game against China, deploying full-backs and two strikers to force the opponent out of their tight lineup.
Germany faced a similar problem against South Korea, but was unable to fight it.
“It’s a sign of the times that coaches are more flexible in their tactical set-ups and making in-game adjustments will be more successful,” explained former US boss Jill Ellis, head of FIFA’s technical study group.
The days when you could just get on with what you were doing are over. With Germany, it seemed that adjustments were not made early enough in the game. South Korea was very, very good at their organized bloc and hard to break down. So how do you fight that to profit?’
England shouldn’t underestimate their opponents, but they should also see this as the best chance they’ve had of reaching a World Cup final.
“I don’t think we’re afraid of anyone,” England goalkeeper Mary Earps said. “Our qualities have proven in the many years we’ve been playing together, so I think we’re in a good place.
England goalkeeper Mary Earps says they are in a ‘good place’ and ‘fear no one’
“The proof is what happens on race day, and the most important thing is that we won three out of three. I know the results haven’t been what people would have liked (two 1-0 wins before beating China), but at the end of the day we’re playing at a World Cup.
‘This is the crème de la crème, this is the top. We know what we’re capable of, we’re just focused on one game at a time and getting the job done.’
England have yet to concede from open play, but Earps has still been called up and made a vital save to avoid a Haiti equalizer in the opening game.
“The standard is so high that games can change in the blink of an eye,” Earps said. “Anything can change the moment, so I just try to stay focused and ready when called upon.”
So, who will go to the final eight?
SWITZERLAND v SPAIN
Saturday, 6pm, BBC1
Switzerland is the underdog despite being undefeated here. Spain are by far the stronger side and should do enough to progress, but Switzerland can take comfort in the fact that Jorge Vilda’s side were beaten 4-0 by Japan in their last appearance.
Prediction: Spain
Switzerland is the underdog against Spain despite being undefeated in the tournament so far
JAPAN v NORWAY
Saturday, 9pm, ITV1
Japan was the standout side of the group stage. They haven’t conceded a goal yet and they already score enough. Norway was disappointing before beating the Philippines to qualify for the knockouts.
Ada Hegerberg faces a late fitness test and even with the 2018 Ballon d’Or winner this tie will be a battle for them.
Prediction: Japan
Japan was the star in the group stage and has yet to concede a goal
NETHERLANDS v SOUTH AFRICA
Sunday, 3pm, BBC1
The Netherlands is perhaps the dark horse of this tournament. They beat the USA to first place in Group E, despite the lack of star player Vivianne Miedema.
South Africa progressed with a late victory over Italy. They are nice to watch but have a habit of giving goals to the opponent.
Prediction: The Netherlands
The Netherlands is perhaps the dark horse of this tournament after beating USA to first place
SWEDEN v UNITED STATES
Sunday, 10am, ITV1
Sweden led their group comfortably and will cherish their chances against the holders, who have yet to find a rhythm at this tournament.
The Swedes have not yet been tested, but the US has been battling them for the past few years. Potentially the draw of the round.
Prediction: Sweden
Sweden comfortably led their group and will appreciate their chances against the US
ENGLAND v NIGERIA
Monday, 8.30am, BBC1
England will hope to repeat their performance in China’s 6-1 thrashing, but Nigeria poses a much tougher test. The African side progressed from a Group of Death by knocking out Olympic champion Canada.
The Lionesses should cause problems in attack, but will have to be wary of Nigeria’s speed at half-time.
Prediction: England
England should cause problems, but will have to be wary of Nigeria’s speed in the escape
AUSTRALIA v DENMARK
Monday, 11.30am, BBC1
The hosts will be buoyed by their 4-0 thrashing of Canada, but there are question marks over the fitness of Sam Kerr, who has less than a minute to play in this tournament.
Denmark have shown they are strong defensively but struggle to score goals. The Aussies will feel they have the momentum to cross the line.
Prediction: Australia
Australia will be aided by their 4-0 thrashing of Canada ahead of the game against Denmark
COLOMBIA v JAMAICA
Tuesday, 9pm, ITV1
This is probably the hardest tie to predict. Colombia have shown more offensive threat than their opponents, but Jamaica have been solid defensively and have yet to concede a goal.
Linda Caicedo will be key to Colombia’s future, while Jamaica will hope any opportunities they create will fall to Manchester City striker Khadija Shaw.
Prediction: Columbia
Jamaica hopes any chances they create fall to Manchester City striker Khadija Shaw (L)
FRANCE v MOROCCO
Tuesday, afternoon, BBC1
Hervé Renard’s France seems to have found its feet after a shaky start. Morocco beat the odds to get out of their group and hope to deliver another shock.
The North Africans have improved defensively since losing 6-0 in their opener against Germany (since the elimination), but beating Les Bleues will be a tough task.
Prediction: France
Morocco will hope to upset again after beating the odds to qualify from their group