As I gear up for what’s set to be another exciting event like Samsung Galaxy Unpacked on July 10, where new foldable phones, smartwatches and a smart ring will be unveiled, I’m reminded of the still-hard truth about the foldable phone market: it accounts for just 1.5% of global smartphone sales.
Considering the global phone market is worth it $509 billionthen 1.5% of that market, or $7.9 billion, isn’t a terrible number. But when we take mindshare into account, foldables are still a blip in the public consciousness.
Market research company Trend power has some useful numbers on what it sees as the “gradual growth” of the foldables market, which could reach… wait for it… 5% by 2028.
While the market for best foldable phones is small, it’s getting crowded, with phone makers pretending there’s a foldable landrush. After Samsung took the market by storm with its Samsung Galazy Z Flip and Samsung Galazy Z Fold (which took a few iterations to become usable), rivals like Google, Huawei, Oppo, ZTE and Honor have jumped in with their own similar (but often slightly thinner, better-looking or more powerful) models.
To Samsung’s credit, it has been effectively upgrading its foldable devices for a few years now, and it’s expected to break new ground in Paris with the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 6 and Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6.
Unfolding the truth
In the global market, that strategy may not matter much, as competitors have undermined Samsung’s foldable dominance, taking it just above 50% this year. The other largest foldable market player is now Huawei.
What’s interesting about the TrendForce pie chart below is not only that Samsung and Huawei effectively own the foldable market (with Motorola leading the way with 6.7%), but that Huawei, a Chinese company that doesn’t sell its devices in the USA sells, such a big player.
If I extrapolate a little, this might support my theory that the foldable market isn’t really global, but instead concentrated in China, South Korea, and perhaps India.
In the US I almost never see a foldable in the wild. There’s the occasional Galaxy Z Fold out there every now and then, but I haven’t seen anyone wearing a Galaxy Z Flip yet. Okay, I saw someone – it was Euphoria actress Syndey Sweeney, who showed up for Samsung in South Korea last year at the launch event for the Galaxy Z Flip 5 and Z Fold 5. It looks like she brought that Flip 5 back to the US, and was photographed with it at various TV shows performances. She also gets paid to use itso that’s it.
The lack of mainstream consumer interest in foldable phones (see my anecdotal X-poll below) is somewhat baffling, considering many of us grew up with or remember our first phones as flips. These weren’t necessarily “foldable” phones, in the sense that the screens didn’t fold, but they did flip open and closed, and were largely lovable, if limited in functionality.
Modern foldables combine the best of old-school flips and modern big-screen smartphone wonders. They can do anything, and look fantastic while doing it.
The delay may be the price. The Galaxy Z Fold starts at $1,799.99 / £1,749 / AU$2,599 (although trade-in deals and other perks can bring the price down quite a bit). The Z Flip 5 starts at $999.99 / £1,049 / AU$1,649. Motorola’s meteoric rise in the market is mainly due to the fact that it significantly undercuts Samsung on price, at least compared to the Flip. The Motorola Razr is typically offered for less than $500, although the just-announced 2024 Motorola Razr model starts at $699.99 / £799 / AU$999, while the Plus model costs $999.99 / £999 / AU Costs $1,699.
Some believe that Apple’s absence from the foldable phone market is holding it back. Apple’s presence in any market usually establishes that market, but most believe that Apple is still years away from introducing a foldable iPhone – and given the slow growth of the market, it could be even longer.
How can Samsung move the watch face?
So what can Samsung do with its next foldable models to change consumer perception and bring the form factor mainstream?
1. Lose the fold
It’s likely that while some find foldable phones intriguing, they’re still put off by the visible crease that appears on almost every foldable display. I’ve seen it to varying degrees on Galaxy Flips and Folds, the Google Pixel Fold, and Motorola Razrs. It’s almost unavoidable. Perhaps consumers just don’t like the look and feel of it.
So the first thing Samsung can do at Unpacked is surprise us with the first wrinkle-free Galaxy Z Flip and Fold. For many people, seeing is believing
2. Reassure us about sustainability
There is also the issue of sustainability. Anything mechanical is more susceptible to failure than a purely solid-state device. The best iPhones and best Samsung Galaxy phones last so long because there are no moving parts. They can break if dropped, but dust and water don’t bother them.
However, something with a hinge could cause more problems. Granted, Samsung builds its foldable phones to be just as durable as its regular phones – this year they need to convince consumers that this is the case and that they aren’t taking an expensive risk by investing in a foldable device.
3. Get the price right
With the prospect of another set of Samsung Galaxy Flips and Folds to consider, I wonder what else Samsung can or will do to expand the market this time. Sure, it’s partly aimed at maintaining its market dominance, but Samsung, like every other foldable phone maker, also knows that 1.5% might not be enough to justify the effort in the long run.
For me, it all comes down to price. I’d sell the Flip 6 for $500, or around £525 / AU$825, and the Fold 6 for $999.99, or around £1,049 / AU$1,649 – and that’s before discounts and rebates. That would turn some heads and could give the entire foldable market a huge boost.
Whatever happens, I’ll be there in Paris on July 10 to tell you all about it. Stay tuned to Ny Breaking for the latest Galaxy Unpacked coverage.