The familiar failings putting Arsenal’s trophy hopes in real danger

For Arsenal, the pattern was all too familiar. They won the xG against Manchester United on Sunday, depending on which model you prefer, by around 3.5 to 0.5, but they drew the match 1-1 and lost with a certain inevitability on penalties. The previous Tuesday, in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, they had won the xG 3.1-1.2 but lost 2-0 to Newcastle. The previous Saturday they drew 1-1 against Brighton in the league, despite winning the xG 1.5-0.9. They have started 2025 by failing to translate their dominance into goals, and very quickly their hopes of a trophy are evaporating.

This was a very good weekend for the FA Cup. Plymouth, bottom of the Championship, caused the big shock by knocking out Brentford, while League Two Bromley took the lead before succumbing to Newcastle, non-league Tamworth took Tottenham to extra-time and there were further shocks as Doncaster and Exeter Hull and knocking out Oxford. . But the highlight of Sunday’s sulphurous clash in the Emirates: there is no point in Premier League sides going soft. The consequences could be enormous for Arsenal.

They are out of the FA Cup. Their hopes in the Carabao depend on overturning a two-goal deficit at St James’. They are six points behind Liverpool in the Premier League and have played a game more: home games this week against Tottenham and Aston Villa look crucial. At least the Champions League, in which they are third in the rankings, will continue to exist. Unfortunate cup results happen; it’s the nature of knockout competition. But what will frustrate Arsenal was how they were undone by the same old shortcomings on Sunday.

There has been a huge improvement since Mikel Arteta took charge in 2019. That can be recognized and celebrated, while still recognizing that Arsenal usually fall short in the same way. Some corners of social media seem to have decided that Arteta is the problem, which is one of the worst habits of modern football: not every disappointment has to lead to a sack. Managers can learn on the job; Arsenal really aren’t far off and the person best equipped to carry them over the line is probably the person who caught them in sight. But they really need to develop a harder edge.

Some of that could be solved by bringing in a real centre-forward. Last season the feeling was that there was no way Arsenal could win if they didn’t play well, and no one could convert half a chance into a winner, a problem partly obscured by their set-piece skill. However, this season they won’t even win if they play well. Injuries to Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka have not helped, but any side that is so dependent on one partnership for creativity risks exactly that problem. Losing players of such caliber would hurt any side, but part of winning titles is settling for when things aren’t perfect; Arsenal often seem overwhelmed by the feeling that fate is against them.

Arsenal are not a team that does well in adversity. From the defeat at Bournemouth onwards, Arteta seemingly made a conscious effort to avoid complaints about refereeing, perhaps realizing that what could have created a siege mentality risked instilling a fatalistic paranoia. That ended with the admittedly unusual penalty against them at Brighton last week, while his furious reaction to Gabriel Martinelli’s offside effort in the first half suggested his resolve in that regard may have disappeared altogether. Even the award of a soft penalty, with United down to ten men, could not save them.

They had even more chances against United on Sunday, lots of them. Kai Havertz was the most guilty – missing his kick in the shootout – but Declan Rice and Leandro Trossard also missed very representative chances. It’s too simplistic to say that a top-class striker would necessarily have scored, but Havertz has never been productive; he is a creator rather than a finisher. It’s true that Pep Guardiola has proven that teams can thrive with a fleet of attacking midfielders, but even he has turned to Erling Haaland these days; to win the league with a false nine requires remarkable ruthlessness and control in midfield. Gabriel Jesus’ knee injury, just as he was starting to score goals again – albeit mainly against Crystal Palace – only compounds the problem.

“It’s unbelievable that you don’t win that match,” Arteta said on Sunday. “The dominance, the superiority in relation to the opposition and everything we did to try to win.” That has been a constant theme for him this season: that his team has failed to take advantage of the opportunities, while they have allowed their opponent one chance that has been taken. There has been misfortune, but perhaps equally there has been the feeling that recruitment, even a mentality that tries to deny the opposition any chance, has contributed to the issue: Riccardo Calafiori and Mikel Merino have strengthened the squad and deepened the squad without anything to do about that inability to convert superiority.

Teams have seasons like this. The road to glory isn’t supposed to be smooth. The Premier League title is not yet completely out of reach, and Europe remains. But thoughts must already be on next season: if they are to finally taste success, Arsenal must turn disappointment into hunger, discover the determination of champions and find a way to convert opportunities.

• This is an excerpt from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, the Guardian US’s weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have a question for Jonathan? Email footballwithjw@theguardian.com and he will provide the best answer in a future edition