The diagrams that show how support for Joe Biden and Donald Trump has shifted in three key battleground states: Flow charts reveal voters looking for alternatives
With less than a year to run, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are seeing their complex coalitions of voters crumble amid a hodgepodge of other candidates vying for attention.
A swing state poll conducted for DailyMail.com exposes the way voters for the two likely 2024 candidates have changed their positions since casting their ballots in 2020.
The headline is that Biden is trailing Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nominee, in Arizona and Georgia, but has the advantage in Wisconsin.
But these three flowcharts show how and why the president is losing support.
In Arizona, where both candidates are seeing their votes shrink, Biden has lost 13 percentage points, while Trump has lost only seven points.
JL Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in each of the three battleground states. The results can be used to identify who is winning and losing voters. With less than a year to go, they show Joe Biden losing support to other candidates in Arizona
With almost a year to go, Trump is ahead of Biden in national opinion polls. But state-by-state polls, especially in key battlegrounds, provide a clearer picture of the Electoral College outcome
In Georgia, a once deeply red state now trending blue, its 2020 supporters don't know what to do.
Some have switched from Biden to don't know as they weigh questions about the economy in a state where Trump-backed challengers underperformed last year and failed to oust a Republican governor and a Democratic senator.
But in Wisconsin, the picture is reversed. It is Trump who is seeing his 2020 coalition increasingly fragment, with former Democratic independent candidate and anti-vaxxer Robert Kennedy Jr. is the main beneficiary.
The results come from a survey of 550 likely voters in each state conducted by JL Partners from November 27 to December 1.
“Compared to 2020, both Biden and Trump's coalitions are fragmented,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.
“But Biden loses more support than Trump in Arizona and Georgia: to undecided voters and in Arizona also to some direct switches to Trump.”
'In Wisconsin it is Trump's coalition that is increasingly falling apart.
“He has lost a number of voters to undecided and other candidates – with RFK receiving six times as many votes from Trump as from Biden.”
In Georgia, Biden lost by 11 points, with some saying they don't know how they will vote
The situation is different in Wisconsin, where Robert Kennedy Jr. could be poised to make a decisive impact by turning voters away from Trump
In Wisconsin, the nephew of American President John F. Kennedy is polling at six percent of likely voters.
Kennedy's impact could be a crucial factor in the 2024 election.
National polls show he tends to get more support from Trump.
Distaste for both main candidates and fatigue at the thought of a repeat of 2020 is evident in all three flowcharts.
Trump and Biden enjoy significantly less support than in 2020, and potentially decisive numbers say they don't know who they will vote for or say they would favor anyone else.
The overall results show that Joe Biden is in danger of losing two states that helped him win in 2020
Robert Kennedy Jr.'s support in Wisconsin is six percent, eroding Trump's vote share and helping Biden maintain a lead in the state
Almost no one said they would see it through completely.
The three states were chosen because they were the tightest battleground states in 2020.
For example, Biden flipped Georgia by the narrowest margin: He won 11,000 more votes than Trump, or about 0.2 percent of the turnout.
Biden won Arizona by just 10,500 votes, or 0.4 percent.
And he won Wisconsin by just over 20,000 votes, or about 0.63 percent.