The two likely candidates for the 2024 elections are locked in a negative race. The winner is determined by the one who can lose the fewest supporters.
At least, that's the takeaway from our flowcharts: images that use poll results to show how people who voted for Donald Trump or Joe Biden in 2020 plan to vote next time.
And the general flow is away from the two repeat candidates, and toward undecidedness or toward one of the marginal candidates.
The results of JL Partners' latest survey for DailyMail.com show that this trend is working best for Trump.
In 2020, he won 45 percent of the vote, compared to Biden's 49 percent. So far, Trump is losing fewer supporters, beating Biden by 40 points to 36 in the poll of 1,000 likely voters.
JL Partners surveyed 984 likely voters across the country about their 2024 voting intentions. Compared to 2020, the results show that Joe Biden has lost more support than Donald Trump
The poll showed former President Donald Trump has opened a four-point lead over President Joe Biden with 11 months to go before the 2024 presidential election
He is losing fewer voters nationwide to independent candidate and possible spoiler Robert Kennedy Jr.
And a full 13 percentage points of Biden's 2020 support now don't know where to go. They may not be excited about the Democratic president, but no one else is.
In contrast, only six points of Trump's 2020 support moved to the “don't know” column.
Scarlett Maguire, a director at JL Partners, said the results should be a warning to the Biden campaign.
“As we head into a historic election year, 2024 looks increasingly likely to be a near-inevitable rematch of 2020,” she said.
“There's a good chance we'll be looking at another showdown between Trump and Biden, with a race that could once again prove negative, with both candidates battling to avoid losing too many of their supporters from last time.
“Right now, despite his many legal problems, it is Donald Trump who is managing to hold on to a larger share of his 2020 votes.
“A significant number of those who voted for Biden remain undecided, posing a significant risk to his campaign. And another warning sign for his re-election efforts is that he is currently losing more supporters to RFK than his main presidential rival.”
The poll provides a snapshot of how voters are thinking as the contours of the 2024 election come into view.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. left the Democratic primary to campaign as an independent. So far, he's taking in about two percentage points of Trump's 2020 vote
About 13 percentage points of Biden's 2020 supporters say they don't know who they will vote for in 2024. At the same time, four points have moved all the way to the Trump column.
RFK Jr. launched a presidential run in April and announced he would face Biden in the Democratic primary, before switching to an independent run in October — meaning he will have to get his name on every state's 2024 general election ballot
Trump has not yet clinched the Republican nomination, but January will bring the picture into sharper focus as Iowa and New Hampshire hold their nominating contests.
For the time being, he is the clear frontrunner as his party's candidate.
When asked who they would vote for if the election were to take place tomorrow, 40 percent of respondents chose Trump and 36 percent for Biden.
Independents Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West won 4 percent and one percent, respectively, while Green candidate Jill Stein's share was rounded down to zero.
So there remains a lot to play for. About 18 percent said they still have not made a choice or want a different candidate.
And the poll went into the field before the Colorado Supreme Court added another twist, disqualifying the former president from the state's Republican primary.
Still, James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said Trump was on the rise.
“Voters may think Trump is guilty of the charges he has laid upon him, including a significant portion of Republicans, but his record in his first term means he still has support,” he said.
JL Partners surveyed 984 likely voters across the country. The results show that Donald Trump has a four-point lead over Joe Biden. The results have a margin of error of 3.1 points
A thousand likely voters were also asked about the one word they associated with Joe Biden's plans for a second term. The results will make sobering reading for the president's campaign
Trump has used rally speeches and other appearances to rail against opponents. He has even sometimes adopted the idea of being a dictator as a way to get things done
Another result from the poll shows why both candidates are generally leaking support.
When asked for one word each to summarize what Trump wants from a second term and what Biden wants, the results make for bleak reading.
“Nothing” was by far the most popular word to describe what Biden wanted to achieve, with “economy” and “peace” coming next.
The word cloud is very different for Trump, who may have been too successful in making his intentions clear.
The former president, who spends much of his time railing against opponents and critics, is associated with: 'Revenge', 'power' and 'dictatorship'.
“It captures the essence of this campaign quite accurately,” says author and conservative commentator Matt Lewis.