The chart showing why RFK Jr.’s dropout could determine whether Trump or Harris wins the election
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voters could help Donald Trump defeat Kamala Harris in November’s presidential election, according to an exclusive poll for DailyMail.com.
This shows that his supporters prefer Trump over Harris by a two-to-one margin.
While JFK’s nephew is polling in single digits, such a surge could be enough to tip the balance in Trump’s favor in a neck-and-neck race that will be decided by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states.
The issue could become even more urgent on Friday amid speculation that RFK Jr. is preparing to withdraw.
He is scheduled to speak at 2 p.m. Eastern Time in Phoenix, Arizona, “about the current historic moment and his path forward.” He has already withdrawn his name from the state’s ballots.
JL Partners conducted two surveys of more than 1,000 likely voters on voting intentions and political attitudes. By combining the data, it is possible to see which way RFK Jr. voters lean if the choice is Trump or Harris, with more than half leaning toward the former president. The polls were conducted August 7-11
Our latest poll with JL Partners, conducted August 7-11, found that of 1,001 likely voters, only five percent would vote for Kennedy if the election were held tomorrow.
He trailed far behind Trump at 43 percent and Harris at 41 percent.
But when that poll was combined with a second survey asking whether people lean more toward Trump or Harris, the results seemed conclusive: More than half (51 percent) said they leaned more toward the former president.
About a quarter (26 percent) said they leaned more toward Harris.
That could increase Trump’s voter base by a point or two if Kennedy does not run again.
“Don’t try to get RFK Jr. to make even a small difference in the election,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.
This is an important third party withdrawing.
“And our data shows that RFK Jr. voters would have voted for Trump by a large margin even before then if their man were not in the race.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has officially filed papers to withdraw from the Arizona presidential race amid rumors he will withdraw from the election on Friday
Our poll shows Donald Trump will get more voters from RFK Jr. than Harris
The data can also be used to see what happens to people who voted for Biden in 2020 but now say they support RFK Jr. More than a quarter say they are leaning more toward Trump
RFK Jr., 70, an environmental lawyer with a flair for conspiracy theories and anti-vaccination arguments, entered the race as a Democrat.
But he switched to independent election politics after failing to find support from Biden in the primaries.
Previous polls by JL Partners showed he received more support from the left than the right.
“The data also shows that there is a small but significant group of voters who went for Biden in 2020, switched to RFK Jr. and are now leaning more toward Trump,” Johnson said.
“These voters, who used RFK Jr. as a stepping stone to Trump, could make the difference in states that are on the brink of collapse. RFK Jr.’s exit will give Trump a boost in these states.
“It’s a more significant development than what came out of the DNC this week.”
Trump is on a tour of key states and will hold a rally near Phoenix shortly after RFK Jr.’s announcement.
His campaign has announced a special guest, fueling growing speculation that Kennedy will endorse the former president.
During a visit to the southern border on Thursday, Trump said he was open to the possibility, calling it a “great honor.”
He also said there might be room in his administration for RFK Jr., the son of Robert Kennedy, JFK’s attorney general.
But he will have a big fight to win over RFK Jr.’s supporters.
Michael Tyler, Harris’s communications director, told MSNBC that her campaign team was eager to welcome voters.
“I think his withdrawal completely confirms … that this election is going to be a choice between Vice President Harris, who is fighting for the American people, (and) Donald Trump, who … is just fighting for himself,” he said at the Democratic convention in Chicago.
Kennedy has endured a turbulent campaign, recently admitting that he dumped a dead bear cub in Manhattan’s Central Park in 2014.
In addition, he faced tight campaign finances and legal troubles, including a ruling in New York that barred him from appearing on the state ballot because he had listed a “fake address” on his nominating petitions.