Team GB face close battle with France to win medal table duel ahead of final weekend of Olympics in Paris – as stats boffins tip host nation to edge ahead

In rugby, they call the Anglo-French battle Le Crunch. Here in Paris, the numbers are crunched as the leaders of Britain and France try to predict who will win their medal table duel.

With two days to go until the Olympics, the British team are level with the host nation (14 golds and 20 silvers) but ahead of them for bronze.

However, they face fewer serious gold medal contenders heading into the final weekend, putting them at serious risk of finishing behind France in the medal table for the first time in 20 years.

“For France, three more gold medals looks realistic at the moment, while for Britain it looks more like one or two,” said Simon Gleave, head of analytics at Nielsen’s Gracenote, which uses a statistical model to predict medal tallies for the Olympics.

Gracenote predicted ahead of the Games that France would beat Team GB, but saw the countries finish third and fourth in their virtual medal tally, behind the USA and China.

Both countries have an equal number of gold and silver medals, but Team GB are one bronze medal ahead and will have to fight to maintain that lead (pictured – Jack Carlin after winning bronze in the men’s sprint final) |

Last night, the US and China were in first and second place, followed by Australia in third, Japan in fourth, Britain in fifth and France in sixth.

“Great Britain are slightly behind the schedule we had, with a few near misses like Adam Peaty in the 100m breaststroke and Matthew Hudson-Smith in the 400m,” Gleave said. “That means their gold medal total will be slightly lower.

‘Team GB need to win at least one more gold to hold off a number of other countries. We predict two or three more will go to Italy and the Netherlands.’

Britain’s best hope for gold this weekend comes on Sunday, with track cyclist Emma Finucane in the sprint and Kerenza Bryson and Kate French in the modern pentathlon. France could add to their gold haul in the men’s volleyball final, the women’s handball final and the women’s +67kg taekwondo final on Saturday.

The French are well on their way to achieving President Emmanuel Macron’s goal of a top-five finish, and have already won a record number of medals since the war.

Olympic host nations traditionally perform strongly, given the advantage of a home crowd and the extra investment in sport in the run-up to the Games. Team GB won a post-war record 29 gold medals at London 2012.

Statistical expert Nielsen’s Gracenote predicted France would beat Great Britain ahead of the Games, but also highlighted Britain’s near misses, including Adam Peaty in the 100m breaststroke final

France has already won a record number of medals since the war, with swimmer Leon Marchand winning a whopping four gold medals and one bronze at the Games.

France’s improvement from Tokyo 2020, when they finished eighth on the medal table with a total of 10 gold medals and 33 awards, was expected by Britain’s national coaches.

Speaking at a briefing ahead of the Olympics, UK Sport’s director of performance Kate Baker said: ‘France had a disappointing Tokyo but we’d be crazy not to assume they’ll make the most of their home Games. It will give them a competitive advantage.’

UK Sport, the funding agency for British Olympic sport, has set Team GB a target of maintaining their top five position in the medal table, but that position remains uncertain.

Britain’s claimed medal count is between 50 and 70, but this is likely to be Britain’s lowest gold medal tally since Athens 2004 and its worst medal haul since Beijing.