Tasmania election 2024: Jacquie Lambie set to decide next premier in hung parliament

Tasmania will once again have a hung parliament, with the Liberal Party failing to form a majority government after Saturday’s election.

Prime Minister Jeremy Rockliff called early elections last month in an attempt to win a majority for the Liberals.

Tom Connell, Sky News’ chief election analyst, said early results suggested Labor could not form a majority government.

“Labor will certainly not get a majority and it seems increasingly unlikely that the Liberals will get there either,” he said.

It appeared the Liberals would have at least 15 seats, just short of the 18 needed for a majority in the newly expanded 35-seat parliament.

Early results show a 12.6 percent swing to the Liberal Party, with the majority of those votes going to the Jacquie Lambie Network rather than Labor.

The Jacqui Lambie Network appears to be emerging as the kingmaker, with the party expected to win four seats.

At 9pm on Saturday, the Liberal Party was forecast to win 15 seats, Labor 10, Greens five, Jacquie Lambie Network four, with one going to an independent party.

The Jacquie Lambie Network, formed by the senator, will be well placed to help form the next government.

She refused to weigh in on whether to support the Liberals, saying the decision would be “up to my candidates” and suggesting they could “stay out of the rubble.”

“Jeremy Rockliff could have fixed a few things yesterday but he didn’t want to,” she said on Sky News about an alleged fake website attacking her party.

“They didn’t play this game very well. the Liberal Party was shocking and absolutely disgraceful.”

Former federal Liberal senator and Tasmanian state candidate Eric Abetz, who won a seat, said he believed early figures indicated voters were turning to the Jacqui Lambie Network as a “protest vote”.

“I think what the Jacqui Lambie Network has done has become a protest movement if those early figures are any indication,” he told the ABC.

“The vote has not shifted from Liberal to Labour, but to a halfway house in the Jacqui Lambie Network, where there is a sense that this is a bit of a protest vote.”

More than 400,000 Tasmanians voted for 167 candidates in the 35-seat parliamentary election. Under the Hare-Clarke system, seven MPs will be elected in each of the state’s five electorates.

A Labor victory would mean Australia would no longer have a Liberal government in any state.

The Liberal Party has been in a minority government since May 2023, when two MPs – John Tucker and Lara Alexander – left the party to sit on the cross benches.

The pair had an agreement with Rockliff to guarantee his government’s supply and confidence before the election.

But the prime minister wanted a tighter deal after they backed opposition motions and criticized his government, including sending minister Guy Barnett to the privileges committee.

He has refused to discuss who he would negotiate with if a hung parliament results from Saturday’s election.

Mr Rockliff this week reiterated the need for Tasmania to have a majority government.

‘What I care about is a majority government. Tasmania does better with a majority government, especially a Liberal majority government,” Rockliff said this week.

THE LAMBIE EFFECT

A team of candidates under the Jacqui Lambie Network could decide who ends up in government.

Polls obtained by Sky News Australia show her party may be the kingmaker after the election.

But Tasmania’s outspoken senator, who has campaigned with the team, said the state’s Liberal Party bought a website domain to create a fake website attacking her party.

“They clearly set up a page using my face, my name and direction and sent out 7000 text messages from an unknown candidate in the Liberal Party who had no idea,” she told Sky News Australia. Main anchor Kieran Gilbert on Thursday.

Senator Lambie said it was up to her candidates to decide who they would support if there was a hung parliament.

“Those candidates will have to make their own decisions at that table…I’m happy to sit there and guide them, but I have to continue to take a step back,” she said.

“I have to find that very fine line because I want these guys to grow as quickly as possible.”

Opposition federal environment spokesman Jonathon Duniam said on Friday that the Jacqui Lambie Network has the potential to create “chaos” in Saturday’s elections.

“The thing about the Jacqui Lambie Network is that it is a collection of individuals who have different views on different issues, which I think is a big part of the problem,” Senator Duniam told Sky News.

“People have been talking about this coalition of chaos and it is something Tasmanians know all too well to avoid at the ballot box.

“My strong and fervent hope is a Liberal majority government.”

THE MAIN ISSUES

The cost of living crisis was a key factor in the election, with both leaders questioned about their plans to tackle the problem.

Mr Rockliff said the government’s policies included a one-off renewable energy dividend of $250 to Tasmanian households and $300 to small businesses, as well as a reduction in the state’s public transport fares.

He also said the Liberal Party would invest in childcare and learning centers by introducing four more across the state to support families.

Labor leader Rebecca White said the cost of living was the “number one issue” in the state and also focused on childcare funding, with a $75 million investment in the sector.

Meanwhile, the controversial AFL stadium was another dominant issue, with the launch of the Tasmanian Devils AFL franchise on Monday. Neither leader was present.

Many do not want to see a new $750 million stadium built in Hobart, but are in favor of a team in the AFL.

Mr. Rockliff has pledged to limit the state’s contribution to the stadium to $375 million, saying “not a cent more.”

“We can have both in Tasmania, we can secure our own AFL team and invest in the areas I know Tasmanians care about… cost of living, health,” he said.

Ms White has said she wanted Tasmanians to have their own team, but that didn’t mean the state needed a new stadium.

“I have made it clear: it is not our priority to invest taxpayer money in such a project when there are people who do not have access to health care.”

The stadium, which will be built on Hobart’s waterfront, is expected to cost $1 billion.

Mr Rockliff said only his government would be guaranteed to proceed with construction of the stadium, a key condition for the AFL’s decision to grant Tasmania its professional team licence.

“The Tassie Team is at risk and Tasmanians cannot afford that risk, and for the Tassie Team and the Tassie Devils, Tasmanians must vote 1 to 7 for their Liberal candidates tomorrow.”

THE HARE-CLARKE SYSTEM

A record 408,197 Tasmanians will vote for 167 candidates in the state’s five seats: Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin and Lyons

Seven MPs from each seat will be elected under a quota system, meaning a total of 35 MPs will be elected. But the full results are unlikely to be known on Saturday evening.

Parliament has been expanded to 35 after being reduced to 25 in 1998.

By increasing the number of members from five to seven, the electoral quota is reduced from 16.7 percent to 12.5 percent.

This lower quota could lead to a larger crossbench, giving smaller parties like the Jacqui Lambie Network a chance to maintain the balance of power.

Voters must check their voting cards 1 through 7.

Registered parties and groups are listed in ballot order, with ungrouped candidates appearing in the last column.

Candidates are listed in alphabetical order within each column, but the names in each column on the ballot are rotated and may not appear in that order.

Rockliff is expected to comfortably win a seat in the north-west electorate of Braddon.

Similarly, Ms White will win in Lyon, one of the Hobart seats.

Former Liberal senator and minister Eric Abetz represents the party in Franklin. He is expected to win a seat.

According to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, almost 90,000 Tasmanians voted early, either at a pre-poll centre, by post or by telephone.

The state’s 255 polling booths are open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturday.

Counting will begin at 6 p.m. and the first results are expected around 6:45 p.m., the committee said.

“It is expected that counting for these elections will take longer,” it said.

‘This is due to an increase in the number of candidates and the number of columns on ballot papers, but also due to the new requirement that at least seven preferences must be marked on each ballot paper, compared to five in 2021.’

Counting stops at 11 p.m. on Saturday.