Kamala Harris is the favorite to win three of the four crucial swing states she brought back into play after succeeding Joe Biden, new polls show.
The vice president has a two-point lead over Donald Trump in Georgia and Nevada, and one point in Arizona. He is one point behind in North Carolina.
These four states seemed unwinnable before President Biden withdrew from the race in favor of his vice president on July 21, but are now winnable for Democrats.
The polls by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News, conducted after the DNC and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew, showed how Harris has changed the electoral map over the past month.
Kamala Harris is favored to win three of the four crucial swing states she brought back into play after taking over from Joe Biden
Biden had to win all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to remain president. It looked like they were all backing Trump.
“These results show that Harris has succeeded in expanding the electoral map,” pollster Chris Anderson said in his analysis for Fox News.
“When Biden was at the top of the ticket, the only path to an Electoral College victory for Democrats was to win the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
“That is no longer the case with the Sun Belt states that are involved in this.”
Michigan and Wisconsin now appear safe for Harris, but Pennsylvania could go either way, making states like Arizona and Georgia more important.
The Beacon/Shaw poll showed how much Harris improved the prospects for a Democratic victory, which had looked dim after Biden’s debacle at the June 27 debate.
In addition to the headline numbers, they also showed how Harris increased support for Democrats among black and Hispanic voters (which, incidentally, declined for Biden), and that the numbers were better among younger voters and even among Americans over 65.
Previous Fox News polls earlier this year showed Biden trailing Trump in both states, and the polls were conducted much less frequently.
In June, his sales fell by five percent in both Arizona and Nevada, in April by six percent in Georgia and in February by five percent in North Carolina.
These four states seemed unreachable before President Biden (pictured Saturday) withdrew from the race in favor of his vice president on July 21, but are now winnable for Democrats
The new poll results mirrored those from the 2020 election, with Biden losing only North Carolina, and all results were by fewer than 100,000 votes.
The poll is one of the first since RFK Jr. dropped out of the race last week and endorsed Trump. While three-quarters of voters who viewed him favorably supported Trump, the full implications of his departure remain to be seen.
Harris increased Biden’s support among black voters to 79 percent, among Hispanic voters to 56 percent, among voters under 30 to 55 percent and among voters 65 and older to 51 percent — all averages across the four polls.
Women favored Harris by 11 percent, men supported Trump by the same percentage, and independents favored Harris by six percent.
Voters surveyed said the economy (41 percent), immigration (14 percent) and abortion (13 percent) were the biggest issues for them.
Arizona was the exception: only 37 percent of residents ranked the economy first. By contrast, residents were slightly more concerned about immigration and abortion, both at 16 percent.
Health care and “election integrity” ranked fourth and fifth, with voters favoring Harris.
Donald Trump is now on the back foot, defending states he seemed to have in his pocket
Trump led Harris among voters who would best manage the economy, 53 percent to 45 percent. On immigration, he had a wide lead, 57 percent to 41 percent.
Harris gained confidence on abortion, but fell 44 to 52 percent when it came to Israel’s handling of the invasion of Gaza.
The question is whether Harris can maintain and build on her improved polling results now that last week’s Democratic National Convention is behind her.
“Campaigns see a bump in poll numbers after their convention, but that usually goes away the following month. That could happen here, but this is not a traditional campaign,” Anderson said.
“A lot of people thought Harris got a boost after Biden pulled out, but that hasn’t changed.”