- Democrats’ early voting advantage is shrinking compared to years before
- It suggests that Republicans are listening to Trump telling them to vote early
Now that early voting is over, the statistics of those who have already cast ballots raise red flags for Kamala Harris’ campaign — especially in some swing states.
Black North Carolinians who have already cast ballots this year are underperforming compared to the 2020 presidential race, which is a sign of concern for the vice president’s campaign as it relies on this demographic to drive the the red trending one is about to turn.
So far, the early voting electorate there has grown older and whiter compared to the state’s overall voter registration.
And in Nevada – another battleground – voters in rural areas of the state are turning out in numbers that suggest the left-leaning state could be in the red on November 5.
Republicans have a 40,500 vote lead in Nevada as of Wednesday evening, which is 5.2 percent more than Democrats in Nevada.
Alarm bells are ringing for Vice President Kamala Harris as Republicans show up en masse for early voting
As of Thursday, nearly 60 million Americans have already cast their ballots, either during in-person early voting or through mail-in voting. This means that about a third of the total number of registered voters in the US have already voted before Election Day.
North Carolina is the most red-leaning swing state in the 2024 election, and Harris’ campaign believed they could win it if black voters elected the first minority women to the Oval Office.
But some Democratic strategists believe that for Harris to be competitive in toppling North Carolina, he must have 20 percent black voter turnout.
On Wednesday, the number of Black voters voting early in North Carolina was about 18 percent.
Early voter data in the state shows that women and suburban voters are doing better than other demographic groups in North Carolina so far, which could be a good sign for Harris.
On the other side of the country, in Nevada, rural Republican voters are far exceeding voter expectations and outperforming Democrats in the left-leaning swing state.
As of Wednesday evening, more than 856,000 mail-in and early voting ballots have been mailed — meaning 42 percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots in Nevada.
And the Republican Party’s rise in the state’s rural areas gives the party an advantage, with Republicans holding a 5.2 percent lead over Democrats.
Voters wait in line to cast their ballots during early voting in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina on October 25, 2024, as reports emerged that Black voters are not turning out in the same numbers as years before.
Democrats were only able to take a measly ten-point lead in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located.
And in Pennsylvania, seen as potentially the most important swing state, the number of Republicans who cast their ballots in early voting soared.
Democrats maintain a slight lead when it comes to early voting nationwide, by a margin of 41 to 40 percent, according to an NBC News tracking.
In previous elections, Democrats were much more likely to vote early when Republicans showed up on Election Day.
Registered Democrats had a 7.5 percentage point lead in early voting in 2016. That nearly doubled during the 2020 election to a 14.3-point gap amid a global pandemic.
As of Monday, early voting among Democrats was only 3.8 points higher than among Republicans.