Summer wave of Covid in England: how worried should I be?

What is the current situation?

It is difficult to get a good picture of the prevalence of Covid, as few people are being tested for infection.

In addition, the Winter Covid Infection Survey, conducted by the Office for National Statistics and the UK Health Security Agency, has ended.

However, there are indications that the number of Covid cases is rising. According to the latest data from UKHSAThe number of hospital admissions due to Covid in England rose to 3.31 per 100,000 in the week beginning June 10, from 2.67 per 100,000 the previous week.

The number of Covid admissions to intensive care has increased slightly, albeit from a low starting point. The percentage of people who tested positive for Covid based on blood samples taken at certain GP practices has also increased.

“It is obviously harder to get definitive data on infections at the moment, but there seems to be a consensus that we are in a period of increasing breakthrough infections and hospital admissions,” said Prof Danny Altmann of Imperial College London.

“This is certainly an area of ​​ongoing concern and need for vigilance, not least in relation to advice on the uptake of booster vaccines for the vulnerable.”

Which Covid variants are circulating in the UK?

The virus behind Covid has undergone a large number of mutations since it first emerged. Currently, the dominant subvariants in the UK are all descended from the JN.1 variant that emerged over the winter, which itself is related to Omicron.

These subvariants are informally called “FLiRT” in reference to the mutations they contain. Members of the group include KP.2, KP.3, and JN.1.7.1.

Because few Covid swabs are collected and therefore few genetic sequences are obtained, it may take longer to identify the arrival, spread and impact of new variants than was the case during the height of the pandemic.

Although data is limited, UKHSA has said that there is currently no sign that these subvariants, including KP.3, are more dangerous than other forms of the virus.

What’s causing the new wave?

While it’s possible that both waning immunity and immune evasion by current Covid variants are playing a role in the increase, Altmann said it’s unclear to what extent these factors contribute.

Professor Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia noted that most data collected in healthcare settings relates to older or vulnerable people.

“I suspect the increase in this age group is due to declining levels of sterilising immunity, especially given that spring booster uptake in people over 75 was just over 60%,” he said.

But Hunter said younger people are also at risk of infection.

“In people who got infected in the winter, sterilizing immunity would have waned by now, and in people who didn’t get infected then or since, there would be relatively little sterilizing immunity left,” he said.

How concerned should we be?

The good news is that hospitalizations for Covid-19 are still lower than they were last winter. Hunter says the severity of infections is much lower for most people now than it was a year ago.

But that doesn’t mean there’s no cause for concern.

Data shows that in the week ending June 14, 152 deaths in England and Wales involved Covidof which 100 were the result of Covid itself.

“Although Covid infections are now relatively trivial for most people, some – particularly those over 75 – are still suffering from severe disease, which is why the spring booster was still important for this age group,” Hunter said.

Although the spring vaccination program ended on June 30, vaccinations are still available privately, although they do come with a hefty price tag.

Experts said people should continue to take precautions.

“If you have symptoms of Covid-19 or flu, help protect others by staying home and avoiding contact with other people, especially those who are more vulnerable. If you do have to go out, consider wearing a mask,” said Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA.

“It’s all about trying to find an informed balance in how we live our lives now,” Altmann said. “We’re a long way from the terror of an unvaccinated, vulnerable population in 2020, but your FLiRt infection can still put you very low for a week, carries a significant risk of leading to long-term, disabling long-Covid, or can have a significant impact if you or the next person you infect are in a very vulnerable group. We’re a long way from a state where this is ‘just like a cold’ and should just be ignored.”