On April 15, fighting broke out in Sudan between the forces of two rival generals, killing more than 400 people, sparking a humanitarian catastrophe and heightening fears of a protracted and unpredictable civil war.
Fighting continues in the capital Khartoum and elsewhere between forces loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Daglo, commander of the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Analysts warn that the conflict could attract foreign armed groups and regional powers and have far-reaching consequences not only for the northeastern African country, but also for an already volatile region.
A quick military victory seems unlikely, experts agree, with al-Burhan’s army more powerful but Hemedti’s RSF excelling at urban warfare. The stage seems set for a protracted conflict.
Fighting spread
Fighting is rapidly escalating, engulfing Khartoum and its sister city Omdurman and several other regions, especially Darfur.
“The battle could quickly slide into an ongoing war that risks rippling through the country’s troubled peripheries to its neighbours,” says the International Crisis Group. “The hostilities have pushed the country into the full-blown civil war Sudanese have feared for years.”
Cameron Hudson – of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies – says violence could escalate beyond Sudan’s borders.
“The challenge is that the conflict … is spreading to every corner of the country – on the border with Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia,” says Hudson.
Refugees
According to the United Nations, between 10,000 and 20,000 people have fled the fighting to Sudan’s western neighbor Chad.
Eastern Chad has already hosted 400,000 Sudanese refugees, and the new arrivals are putting additional strain on the country’s overstretched public services and resources.
Sudan is one of the poorest countries in the world and in February the UN said more than a third of its population is facing a growing hunger crisis.
“Millions of civilians are caught in the crossfire and are rapidly running out of their basic needs,” says the International Crisis Group.
Hudson says he “fully expects a mass exodus of civilians” once the first lasting ceasefire comes into effect. “I expect millions of people trying to cross the border,” he says.
Civil war
If the conflict continues, more people in Sudan’s extremely fragmented society will take up arms, says analyst Alex de Waal. “There are two protagonists. If the conflict continues, the situation will quickly become more complicated.”
Each side is a coalition of different groups, says De Waal, who can shift their alliances, possibly given “ethnic factors”.
The New York-based Soufan Center warned of “interference from outside states, warlords, armed militias and a range of other violent non-state actors.”
“If commanders don’t rein in their fighters, the violence could prolong even further,” the think tank said.
Regional powers
Other countries in the region have all officially called for an end to the violence, but experts agree that Egypt supports al-Burhan, while the United Arab Emirates supports Hemedti.
Hudson says the two generals tried to obtain weapons and reinforcements from neighboring countries. The Russian mercenary group Wagner also has a presence in Sudan, but its involvement focuses primarily on the exploitation of the country’s gold reserves.
De Waal warned that the fighting could attract actors who provide funding, weapons “and possibly their own troops or proxies”.
Libya, the Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia and Eritrea are likely to play political or even military roles in the conflict, he added.
Mediation
“Sudan’s instability is a concern for the whole world, but especially for neighboring countries,” said Emirati political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, noting its strategic location on the Red Sea. “Everyone will pay a price.”
Since tensions erupted, mediators from the United Nations, the African Union, the regional IGAD bloc and the capitals of the West and Gulf have tried to bring al-Burhan and Hemedti to the negotiating table. So far the efforts have been in vain.
Some analysts say years of diplomacy with the two generals since the overthrow of longtime authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir in 2019 has emboldened them.
The international community and major powers are “getting nothing” if they call for a ceasefire now, Hudson says.