Storms threaten US coast: Tropical storm forming has 80% chance of turning into a hurricane

Two weather systems over the Atlantic Ocean could possibly turn into the season’s next major tropical storm or hurricane, with one of them given an 80% chance to form in the next five days.

While tropical depressions can be hard to predict at such an early stage, models have indicated one of the systems, if it were to gain power, could head for Bermuda and then possibly the US’ East Coast.

The potential storms come as the Atlantic hasn’t had a storm all August, marking it as one of the calmest periods in history during a month that typically spawns the most storms and hurricanes.

One reason for the lack of storms can be attributed to the Sahara Desert in Africa, as dust from the desert is swept across the Atlantic ocean, creating dryer air that makes it harder for storms to form. 

The mass of dust, called the Saharan Air Layer is about two miles thick and sits one mile above the Earth’s surface, and is known to be responsible for stunning sunsets and sunrises due to light bouncing off the dust particles. 

The first and closest weather system was reported a couple hundred miles off the coast of Lesser Antilles, a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea.

The system has been producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across a large area, according to the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook. 

‘Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week,’ said senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown.

The second system, which is much earlier in its development as it rolls off the coasts of Senegal and Gambia, may also gain strength as it swirls across the Atlantic. 

The next tropical storm system is set to be named Danielle, while the next after that will be named Earl, then Fiona, then Gaston, keeping in line with tradition to name storms and hurricanes alphabetically. 

The potential storms come as the Atlantic hasn’t had a storm all August, marking it as one of the calmest periods in history during a month that typically spawns the most storms and hurricanes.

One meteorologist pointed out that by normal standards, we should have had 8 named storms by this time, but have only experienced three this year. If August does end without a named storm, it will be the first time since 1997.

This time last year, the U.S. had endured Tropical Storm Fred, which hit Florida on August 16 and spawned 31 tornadoes from Georgia to Massachusetts, and Hurricane Henri, which slammed into New England on August 22, flooding large swathes of the coast.  

Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, noted that it is the first time since 1982 that there has not been a single named storm anywhere in the Atlantic between July 3 and the penultimate week of August.

The phenomena has happened five other times since 1950, making a quiet stretch this long leading up to peak season a roughly once-a-decade event. 

Still, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts six to 10 Atlantic hurricanes compared with the norm of seven, and they can come quickly in September, when ocean water is at its warmest.  

‘You don’t want people to let their guard down,’ said Accuweather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. ‘Just because we haven’t had any storms yet doesn’t mean we won’t.

‘And it’s not necessarily the number of storms that counts. ‘It’s: does the storm hit the U.S., and if it does, what is the intensity when it does so?’