Stock market has done something it’s never done before… after key jobs report

Stocks closed at a record high after November’s jobs report came in better than expected, while also paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut rates again at its next meeting this month.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.25 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.81 percent, pushing both indexes to record highs.

Data released Friday morning showed the U.S. labor market rebounded in November, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2 percent.

Employers added 227,000 jobs last month, in a solid recovery from October, when the fallout from strikes and hurricanes significantly slowed job creation to just 36,000.

Friday’s report from the Department of Labor provides some relief for investors, confirming that October’s weak jobs report was due to external factors, rather than a more fundamental weakness in the economy.

According to the FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in an 88 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting on December 18.

The fact that stocks are jumping on the news is also good news for Americans with 401(K) retirement accounts, which are usually invested in these major stock indexes.

“The data this morning was a Thanksgiving buffet with payrolls in order, revisions positive, but unemployment ticking higher despite declining employment rates,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multisector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

“This print does not destroy the holiday spirit and the Fed remains on track to cut rates in December.”

Lower interest rates will make borrowing money cheaper, taking some of the pressure off consumers’ wallets.

“The market is still in favor of a Fed rate cut later this month and this report is unlikely to change that expectation,” said Bret Kenwell, US Investment Analyst at eToro.

“Had it shown blistering strength, a discussion on keeping interest rates unchanged might have gained momentum at the current meeting.

“As it stands, this report was better than expected, but close enough to remain ‘in line’ to keep the status quo intact – which calls for a 25 basis point rate cut in mid-December.”

Although the Fed rate has no direct impact on loan, credit card, and mortgage rates, it does have a strong influence.

Lower interest rates are also generally seen as good for businesses; when they fall, the stock market rises.

Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income, told Bloomberg TV on Friday: “This is the kind of number that will support the Fed rate cuts in December.”

He added that two or three more cuts over the next year would be “perfectly reasonable.”

The Fed has cut rates by 75 basis points since September, when it launched its easing cycle with a massive cut.

Benchmark borrowing costs are now between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent, after rising to a ten-year high between March 2022 and July 2023.

Further cuts will impact many aspects of America’s finances, but consumers will have to wait longer in some areas to see relief than others.

Credit card and personal loan rates should continue to decline, offering borrowers some respite.

But how much credit card issuers will reduce interest rates is unknown, and annual interest rates are set by the banks, so any reduction will not be immediate and will depend on the bank and the type of card.

With the economy continuing to grow at a healthy pace, inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2 percent target and policy uncertainty from the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, the prospects for further rate cuts in 2025 are unclear.

Business sentiment rebounded in the wake of Trump’s victory, thanks to hopes for less regulation.

But his promises to raise tariffs on imports and carry out mass deportations have raised concerns about higher prices for Americans and disruptions to the labor market.

Traders are currently betting on two more rate cuts next year, with a possibility of a third before the end of 2025.