A staggering number of voters think the United States is on the wrong track, according to a new Reuters-Ipsos poll two weeks before the election.
The poll also showed that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are effectively in a dead heat. Harris had 46% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 43%, but the numbers are within the margin of error.
What’s more worrying is that the poll shows voters are more pessimistic than ever about the state of the economy and immigration — and they favor Trump’s approach to solving both.
About 70% of registered voters in the poll said the cost of living was heading in the wrong direction, while 60% said the economy was heading in the wrong direction and 65% said the same about immigration policies.
When asked which candidate had the better approach to the issues, Trump gave a lead 46% to 38% on the economy, and 48% to 35% on immigration.
Kamala Harris on the campaign trail in Wisconsin
Immigration also came in at No. 1 when respondents were asked what the next president should focus on most during his first hundred days in office. About 35% chose immigration, with 11% citing income inequality and an equal share of 10% citing health care and taxes.
The poll found that voters cited the economy and immigration, along with threats to democracy, as the country’s top problems.
However, Trump fared poorly when asked which candidate could better tackle political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading 42% to 35%.
Harris also led on abortion and health care policy.
Additionally, nine in ten (88%) voters say they are concerned about election fraud.
Harris’ lead over Trump may not be enough to win the election, even if it holds through November 5.
National surveys, including those from Reuters/Ipsos, provide important signals about the views of the electorate, but the Electoral College results will determine the winner on a state-by-state basis, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive.
Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election and triumphed in the Electoral College, even though she won the national popular vote by two points.
Polls show Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in these battleground states.
The poll signaled that voters — especially Democrats — may be more excited about this year’s election than they were prior to the November 2020 presidential election, when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump.
About 79% of registered voters in the poll — including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans — said they were “completely confident” they would vote in the presidential election.
The share of respondents who definitely will vote was up from 74% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from October 23 to 27, 2020, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they would definitely vote .
The new poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Donald Trump on the campaign trail in Florida
Harris entered the race in July after Biden ended his reelection efforts following a poor debate performance against Trump in June. Trump was widely seen as the front-runner at the time, based in part on his perceived strength in the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has subsided in recent months.
Given the close match, the candidates’ efforts to ensure that their supporters actually cast their votes will likely be critical in determining the winner.
Only two-thirds of American adults voted in the November 2020 election, which was the highest turnout in more than a century, according to estimates from the US Census Bureau and Pew Research Center.
According to a Pew Research estimate, roughly a third of registered voters are Democrats and a third are Republicans, with the balance being independent voters or third-party supporters.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 U.S. adults online nationwide, including 3,481 registered voters. About 3,307 of respondents were considered most likely to show up on Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris had a 3 percentage point lead over Trump, 48% to 45%.