There’s another storm brewing in the Atlantic Ocean that could hit the US – just days after Milton and Helene’s massacre.
Weather experts in Florida are monitoring the weather event, currently named AL94, which could be renamed Tropical Storm Nadine if it worsens.
And now a spaghetti model – so called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – suggests that AL94 will track northwest from its current position.
This would cause the storm to pass north of Antigua and Barbuda and towards the Dominican Republic and the southeastern tip of Cuba, where models show the storm heading southwest toward Jamaica.
While the model currently doesn’t have a direct line to Florida, this could change in the coming days as meteorologists say the Sunshine State is a “possibility.”
The spaghetti model, created using several forecast models, shows potential Hurricane Nadine moving through the Caribbean. But the expert said there is still a possibility it will hit Florida
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) revealed on Tuesday that Invest L94 will become a 50 percent hurricane within seven days.
“This system is forecast to move generally westward and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by mid-week,” NHC shared in a statement.
The spaghetti model, made by Tropical factsshowed that the storm is likely to move northwest from its current location in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The computer model was created by combining multiple forecast tracks from different weather models on one map.
And each line, which resembles a strand of spaghetti, represents a forecast of a different weather mode used by NHC.
Paths that meet, such as those over the Dominican Republic and Cuba, suggest that the predictions used to track Nadine agree on that route, increasing the probability of the prediction.
AccuWeather’s leading hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said, “One possibility would take the system westward into Central America and southern Mexico, and the other is unfortunately toward Florida.
“It’s usually very difficult for a tropical system to move northwest and into Texas this late in the season because of the prevailing westerly winds in that area.”
Nadine, currently a tropical depression, is making its way toward Florida, where there is a 50 percent chance of reaching hurricane status within seven days
Nadine is currently a tropical depression, a cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 60 kilometers per hour, but could strengthen as it reaches warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
“Not only are the waters in this area very warm – well into the 80s Fahrenheit deep – the ocean warmth in the western Caribbean is at record highs at any time of year,” DaSilva said.
However, meteorologists are erring on the side of caution, telling DailyMail.com that the storm is unlikely to reach hurricane status.
If the storm passes over the Virgin Islands, the mountains could disrupt its growth.
He added that “the likelihood of a direct impact on the US is low because there is wind shear that could protect us.”
A wind shear consists of strong upper-level winds that can remove the heat and moisture from the eye of a hurricane and distort its shape, effectively tearing the eye apart.
If the storm were to develop into something larger, DaSilva said it likely won’t happen until Oct. 17-18 and meteorologists won’t know what path the storm will take until then.
“I don’t think it would affect us at all,” he said, adding that “it will either just be pushed out to sea or there will be nothing left by the time it reaches the US.”
However, the storm is still far away and if it hits the United States it won’t be for another nine days, “so things could still change,” DaSilva said.
If the storm takes a turn and hits Florida, it will be the fourth to hit the state this year and just weeks after Milton left a path of destruction.
At least 17 people have been killed in Florida, and while the state is still assessing the financial toll, damage is estimated at billions.
Milton also came after Hurricane Helene hit the Southeast two weeks earlier, flooding states along the coast.
Helene has cost between $30.5 billion and $47.5 billion in total damage across 16 states, according to CoreLogic, and has claimed the lives of more than 230 people to date, with countless others still listed as missing.
This year, there were already above-average hurricanes in mid-October, with four major hurricanes, including Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton, hitting the US.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the US would have an above-average hurricane season and predicted that between four and seven hurricanes of Category 3 or higher would strike.
The prediction so far has come true: by mid-October the figures are above the historical average. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.