Smoking could cause 300,000 cases of cancer in Britain by 2029, study finds

MPs are being urged to back plans to make Britain the first country to eradicate smoking as new figures suggest tobacco will lead to almost 300,000 Britons developing cancer within the next five years.

The Tobacco and Vaping Bill, which would prevent anyone born after January 1, 2009, from legally smoking by gradually raising the age at which tobacco can be purchased, will have its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday.

Cancer Research UK said the “scale of damage” caused by cigarettes and tobacco – the leading cause of death in Britain – could no longer be ignored by MPs, especially as 350 young people take up smoking every day.

It said the bill was a “historic opportunity” to prevent thousands of cancers and significantly reduce the pressure on the overburdened NHS.

Analysis published by the charity on Monday estimates there could be 296,661 new cases of cancer across Britain by 2029 if current trends continue. It showed that on average, almost 160 cases of cancer attributed to smoking were diagnosed every day last year.

The study projects cases of cancer caused by smoking before the end of this legislative session, which researchers assumed would be July 2029.

It estimated 243,045 cases in England, 29,365 in Scotland, 15,161 in Wales and 9,090 in Northern Ireland.

A total of 2,846 cases of cancer in Britain could be caused by exposure to passive smoking in people who have never smoked themselves, the analysis found.

The latest annual population survey from the Office for National Statistics estimates that around 11.9% of people aged 18 or over – the equivalent of around 6 million people – smoked cigarettes in Britain in 2023. This is the lowest percentage of current smokers since ONS registration began in 2011. .

However, research shows that around 350 adults aged 18 to 25 start smoking every day, with 35,000 taking up the habit since the King’s Speech in July, according to Cancer Research.

Dr. Ian Walker, the charity’s executive director of policy, said: “Tobacco kills up to two-thirds of its users. The extent of the damage caused by smoking cannot be ignored and these statistics expose the lives at stake.

“We know that the number of smokers is declining as a result of government intervention. Raising the age at which tobacco products can be sold and funding smoking cessation services will help protect people from a lifetime of deadly and costly addiction.”

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The charity is urging all MPs to vote in favor of the Tobacco and Vaping Bill. The bill was submitted to Parliament in early November.

It could prevent everyone born after January 1, 2009 from legally smoking by gradually raising the age at which tobacco can be purchased.

Restrictions on vaping advertising and sponsorship could also be introduced, as well as restrictions on flavours, displays and packaging to reduce their appeal to children and young people. Vaping and smoking on playgrounds and outside schools could also be banned.

Walker added, “The Tobacco and Vaping Act could be one of the most impactful public health interventions of my lifetime. People’s lives are now in the hands of politicians and I urge all MPs to vote for a future without the harm of tobacco.”

Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, has said that finally making Britain ‘smoke-free’ would lead to fewer stillbirths and cases of asthma in children, as well as a reduction in cancer, stroke, heart disease and dementia.

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