According to a leading think tank, the government is underestimating the number of Britons on sick pay by more than a quarter of a million people.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing a £2 billion benefits ‘black hole’ as officials have consistently underestimated the huge rise in the number of people claiming disability benefits, the Center for Social Justice said.
The think tank said its analysis of the Department for Work and Pensions projections over a ten-year period showed officials underestimated the number of future claimants by an average of 255,000.
There are now more than 9.25 million economically inactive – those not working and not looking for a job – working-age adults in Britain, underscoring the extent of the country’s sick note culture.
Of this figure, more than three million people are claiming disability benefits – an increase of 800,000 since the pandemic – and this number is expected to reach 3.8 million by the end of this parliament.
CSJ said that if the average underestimation of 255,000 is added to current forecasts, the number of people claiming sick pay could exceed four million by the end of this parliament.
This would see more than a million people claiming extra disability benefits compared to now, with a total cost to the public purse of £33.5 billion by 2029.
If this continues unabated, ‘thousands more people could be forced to live on benefits’, researchers warned.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing a £2 billion benefit ‘black hole’ as officials have consistently underestimated the huge rise in the number of people claiming disability benefits, the Center for Social Justice said.
Your browser does not support iframes.
Britain has had the longest-running absenteeism epidemic for a quarter of a century, with the youngest and oldest workers driving the trend, recent analysis shows
The CSJ calls on the Chancellor to take urgent action to get economically inactive Britons back to work.
Andy Cook, director of the think tank, said: ‘These are deeply worrying findings.
As if the challenge of economic inactivity wasn’t great enough, our analysis suggests that thousands more claimants are slipping through the cracks.
‘This must trigger a radical response in this Budget – not just to take control of the ever-increasing welfare bill and restore the foundations of our economy, but to prevent the potential of thousands of people who could thrive in work, is wasted.’
Rachel Reeves is expected to use her budget to pledge £240 million for local back-to-work services, saying she wants to ‘build a Britain where people who can work, will work’ .
However, the Chancellor is under pressure to deal with the ‘ballooning’ social security bill caused by the rise in long-term illnesses, putting pressure on public finances and hampering economic growth.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to press ahead with measures planned under the Tories, which will see a £1.6 billion crackdown on fraudulent claims.
Your browser does not support iframes.
Your browser does not support iframes.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to press ahead with measures planned under the Tories, which will lead to a £1.6 billion crackdown on fraudulent claims and a cut in benefits for some people with mobility and disability mental health problems.
In a speech on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer promised the Budget would ‘pave the way for reforms that tackle the root causes of economic inactivity’.
He added that the extra money would “provide local services that can help people get back to work, and the dignity that it brings.”
The Department for Work and Pensions was contacted for comment.