Shia-Sunni Dynamic Special Status: Key Factors in Kashmir Opinion Polls

In a major overhaul of the polls, the Abdullahs will not contest the Lok Sabha (LS) elections in Srinagar this time. Instead, the National Conference (NC) has fielded former minister and prominent Shia cleric Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi against Waheed Parra of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

“Apart from their political background, both candidates have similar appeal in terms of their post-2019 views,” said Hakim Sameer Hamdani, author of the book Shi’ism in Kashmir-A History of Sunni-Shi’i Rivalry and Reconciliation.

After winning a second consecutive term in 2019, the National Democratic Alliance government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), revoked the special status granted to Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) under Article 370 of the Constitution granted. While the Assembly elections in J&K, now a Union Territory, were long overdue, the LS elections will be held in three phases from May 7.

This time, Hamdani says, a candidate’s political stance on abolishing the region’s autonomy and ability to articulate a notion of a collective Kashmiri identity in New Delhi will influence vote choice.

“You cannot see any community as a monolith. The same goes for the Shias of Kashmir. And they do not vote as a bloc with specific sectarian interests,” Hamdani said, citing group associations.

While Sunni-dominated Srinagar, currently represented by former Prime Minister Farooq Abdullah, goes to the polls on May 13, Anantnag-Rajaouri and Baramulla, the other two constituencies in Kashmir, will vote on May 7 and 20 respectively.

Because the Shia community is a minority in the Valley, some believe that the government and government have “failed to appreciate their ambitions,” Hamdani said, adding that Shia voices have historically been “inconsistent or taken for granted.”

Former Prime Minister Omar Abdullah is contesting from Baramulla, which is being closely watched due to shifts in electoral dynamics post-delimitation.

Besides winnability, the distribution of candidates could also be determined by calculations to defeat Baramulla People’s Conference chairman Sajjad Lone, said Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at ORF and former member of the National Security Council Advisory Council.

“By giving Srinagar to Aga Ruhullah, Omar is ensuring that he gets Shia support in Baramulla. The demarcation was probably done to increase Shia influence in the constituency. The election could be complicated by the candidature of Sheikh Abdul Rashid (known as Engineer Rashid), who is currently in Tihar Jail,” he said.

There are no official figures on the number of Shias living in the Valley. However, some estimates suggest that about 10 percent of the population, or 1.5 million Shias, live in Kashmir, mostly in close-knit colonies.

Prevailing societal prejudices and differences in religious interpretations have resulted in sectarian violence in Kashmir. Forty years ago, Shia cleric Moulvi Ifthikar Ansari’s victory over an NC candidate in the 1983 parliamentary elections (outside the Srinagar constituency) led to sectarian riots. In his book, Hamdani calls it “the first major Shia-Sunni riot of the twentieth century.”

After the beginning of the insurgency movement in the Valley, the majority mentality has often criticized “the loyalty of the Shias to the cause.”

A Shiite has never been given a ministerial position under Sheikh Abdullah, but that changed under Farooq in 1987 when Moulvi Iftikhar Ansari became minister, Hamdani writes in his book.

The Shias were closely intertwined with the Islamic history of Kashmir itself and were at the center of political power under the Chak dynasty.

After the abrogation of Article 370, the BJP has been trying to expand its reach within the community. The J&K government led by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha quashed the ban on Asura processions during Muharram after 34 years. During the 2020 District Development Council elections, BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi had campaigned for the party candidate in Balahama, a Shia-dominated area. The BJP won its first ever seat in the Valley in the same elections.

“If you are a party that has no stronghold in any region, you either have a message that draws people to your platform, or you try to exacerbate existing divisions within the community,” Hamdani said.

Until the 1980s, Hamdani says, some youth from the community were not involved in the events unfolding in Kashmir. But since the abrogation was such a “turning point” in the history of Kashmir, it will be interesting to see whether group interests will prevail this time or whether the collective interests of the Kashmiri people will be of paramount importance, says he.

Joshi partially agrees. The withdrawal of special status will not have a direct impact on the elections, but its politics will, he says. “That policy is quite complicated and must also take the demarcation exercise into account.”

First print: April 18, 2024 | 1:28 hours IST