For years, Hezbollah has turned southern Lebanon into a fortress with a formidable amount of firepower.
The Muslim Shiite towns from which it sources its fighters and the Christian villages it uses as cover for its murderous campaigns harbor a vast stockpile of more than 150,000 missiles.
Furthermore, the country has had years to develop a sophisticated network of tunnels and observation posts in the hilly terrain that runs along Israel’s northern border.
And in the 11 months since Hamas launched the attack from Gaza, killing 1,200 Israelis last October, Hezbollah has maintained a near-constant barrage of rocket attacks – involving no fewer than 8,000 rockets – and expelled 60,000 Israelis last year. the area evacuated.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has promised to return these people to their homes, but that can only be done once the threat of attacks by Hezbollah has been neutralized.
An Israeli army tank pictured in an area on Israel’s southern border with the Palestinian Gaza Strip in June
Smoke rises over the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Siddiqin today
And that can only be achieved through a ground operation in which Israeli tanks, infantry and special forces, equipped with swarms of drones, cross the border into Lebanon.
Some of the more excited commentators would have you believe that this could trigger the start of World War III, but as someone who has followed the activities of Hezbollah and other Iranian allies in the region for a decade, I can tell you that that is nonsense. is.
But having regularly visited northern Israel since the Hamas atrocity, I know one thing for sure: no ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah is worth the paper it is written on.
For example, in the aftermath of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the terms of UN Resolution 1701 limited Hezbollah to territory north of the Litani River, which runs 25 to 32 kilometers north of the border.
This meant that Israel would be out of the range of its anti-tank guided missile fire, the weaponry Hezbollah has used to attack Israeli communities along the border. It would also prevent Hezbollah from launching an October 7-style surprise attack. Did Hezbollah adhere to this agreement? Of course not.
Before the Hamas incursion, Israel prepared for the possibility that Hezbollah’s well-trained elite Radwan Force would launch attacks on Israel at points along its 80-kilometer northern border, in an attempt to seize some of the small Israeli communities living along the mountain ridges are scattered. the front line. In that case, Hezbollah has settled for its brutal rocket bombardments and vowed to continue these attacks as long as the war in Gaza continues.
And it is just one part of Iran’s multi-front war against Israel, which also includes militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. These groups not only attack Israel itself, but also target commercial ships sailing through the region and US forces in Iraq and Syria.
Hezbollah is unwilling to step down without orders from Tehran and the fiercely anti-Semitic mullahs who rule Iran are happy to continue sending Lebanese Shiites to their deaths.
In such a context, a ground war seems increasingly likely. And Israel has trained its military for years for just such a possibility.
Just this week, the Israel Defense Force’s (IDF) 7th Armored Brigade completed its preparations for an invasion of southern Lebanon. Just a few kilometers from the Lebanese border, troops were trained in “maneuvering and fighting in scrubby, mountainous terrain,” the IDF said.
Because Israeli forces have seen heavy fighting in Gaza, they are probably the best prepared in decades.
But serious challenges lie ahead.
Iran’s allies have begun to intensify their attacks. Iraqi militias launched drones in the southern Israeli port city of Eilat on September 25. One reached its target while another was shot down.
However, drones and missiles don’t win wars, and Israel has highly effective air defenses to combat just such a threat. It is also unlikely that Iran will risk a major regional war by entering the battle itself.
Instead, Tehran will try to isolate Israel diplomatically, as the new president tried to do this week at the UN General Assembly.
If Israel wants Hezbollah to move away from the hills overlooking Israel south of the Litani, it seems increasingly likely that it will have to deploy tanks and infantry.
Seth J. Frantzman is an analyst at The Jerusalem Post, an adjunct fellow at The Foundation For Defense Of Democracies, and author of The 7 October War: Israel’s Battle For Security In Gaza.