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Market research agency TrendForce (opens in new tab) has shared his prediction for DRAM production in the coming year, and it looks like servers could become the most important sector.
The company estimates that server DRAM will account for 37.6% of total bit output for 2023, placing it just ahead of smartphones at 36.8%. While the difference may not seem significant, the significance really lies in the massive growth in the server market.
The forecasts consider the trends of the previous year and forecasts for the current year based on various real-time factors, such as the large-scale emergence and adoption of artificial intelligence.
DRAM production 2023
Typically, 2023 may not have been the year when server DRAM would have overtaken mobile DRAM, and the trend may reverse next year. This is because there was a significant oversupply of mobile DRAMs in 2022 and companies are now catching up to burn the existing stock.
However, the forecast for both smartphone shipments and their increase in average DRAM content remains quite conservative, which could indicate that companies are turning their attention elsewhere amid global economic pressures.
A recent explosion of AI technology and other high-performance computing applications has significantly increased the need for server DRAM. TrendForce predicts that average server DRAM content will grow 12.1% year-over-year through 2023, compared to 6.7% for smartphones.
For the next two years, TrendForce expects this year’s predicted trend to continue as servers continue to overtake smartphones, largely due to the increasing prevalence of AI, which has recently proven to be a public hit.