True to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast, rainfall improved in September after a dry August. Cumulative rainfall across India was marginally better at -6 percent of LPA on September 26, compared to -10 percent on August 31. But the most damage was done in August, which, apart from July, is the key month for climate change. sowing charif. The southwest
The monsoon season ends on a below normal note. (rains +/- 4 percent of LPA are considered normal).
During the month, rainfall was heaviest in central India (0 percent of LPA on September 26 versus -10 percent on August 31) and the southern peninsula (-9 percent versus -17 percent). In the Northeast, however, growth remained weak (-18 percent versus -17 percent). In the northwest the situation was stable (2 percent versus 3 percent). Among major kharif producing states, the deficit was highest in Jharkhand (-27 percent of LPA as of September 26), followed by Bihar (-22 percent) and Karnataka (-19 percent). These states are the major producers of arhar (tur), rice and jowar respectively.
For a detailed analysis, we use CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter, or DRIP, which maps rainfall with irrigation coverage across states and crops. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more negative the impact of inadequate rainfall.
The latest scores (based on disaggregated data available until September 20) show continued pressure for seven major Kharif states. The scores for these states remain worse than their average over the past five years. But from the DRIP lens (which also takes into account irrigation coverage), Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Karnataka stand out as the most affected areas. While a major rainfall deficit is behind Jharkhand’s score, inadequate irrigation coverage negatively impacts the latter two states. Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha follow, but their DRIP scores are slightly less unfavorable.
From a crop perspective, the scores were also unfavorable for seven kharif crops, namely tur, jowar, bajra, soybean, maize, rice and cotton.
Tur had the worst score, as Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Karnataka accounted for
64 percent of production.
Three of these crops – jowar, tur and cotton – also had lower year-on-year sowing yields at -9.1%, -5.1% and -3.2% respectively as of September 22.
Rainfall has been erratic this year, fluctuating from a deficit in June to a surplus in July and then back to a deficit in August, declining moderately in September. The IMD has observed that monsoon withdrawal is beginning in northwest India. Deficient rains could maintain pressure on the harvest this year.