Self-driving cars could double congestion by 2060 because of traffic surge traffic, report warns
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Self-driving cars could double traffic congestion by 2060 as traffic increases due to ‘increased mobility of elderly and unlicensed people’, government report warns
- Self-driving cars could almost double congestion, a report found
- Department for Transport (DfT) analysis shows delays to increase by 85% by 2060
- It suggests that autonomous vehicles could make up half of the fleet by 2047
- But the ‘opportunity to work or relax’ in a self-driving car makes delays less stressful
Motorists could be trapped in traffic jams nearly twice as bad as current levels if self-driving cars become commonplace, a government report warns.
Traffic forecasts from the Department for Transport (DfT) for England and Wales show delays could increase by up to 85% between 2025 and 2060 in that scenario.
The analysis is based on connected and autonomous vehicles making up half of the fleet by 2047, and a “rapid rise” of electric vehicles.
This would lead to more traffic by “increasing the mobility of the elderly and those who now do not have a driver’s license,” the report said.
Motorists could be trapped in traffic jams nearly twice as bad as current levels if self-driving cars become commonplace, a government report warns
Traffic forecasts from the Department for Transport (DfT) for England and Wales show delays could increase by up to 85% between 2025 and 2060 if self-driving cars become commonplace
But the paper, published last month, claims that “the ability to work or relax while traveling in a self-driving car” means occupants will be “more likely to be stuck in traffic.”
RAC Foundation director Steve Gooding told the PA news agency: ‘There are currently 5.9 million licensees aged 70 or over in the UK, so we know the demand for mobility is there among senior citizens.
“In the near future, automated vehicles offer the tantalizing prospect of independence for the many millions more people who fall into the older age group, but for whatever reason – cost, medical constraints – are not currently driving.”
Mr. Gooding predicted that the way autonomous technology is deployed will be significant.
He said: ‘If everyone insists on having their own self-driving car, traffic volume and parking pressure will increase.
“However, if we are willing to access these vehicles on demand and relinquish personal property, we can have a win-win situation: quieter roads, fewer cars shared by many, and cheaper transportation.”
A recent analysis by traffic information provider Inrix found that British drivers lost an average of 80 hours to traffic jams last year, an increase of seven hours from 2021.
London was found to be the most congested city in the world by 2022, with drivers in the capital spending an average of 156 hours in traffic.
Autonomous vehicles could make up half of the fleet by 2047, with a ‘rapid rise’ of electric vehicles
Writer and broadcaster Christian Wolmar, the author of Driverless Cars: On a Road To Nowhere, insisted that the government “shouldn’t try” to deal with the traffic congestion feared by self-driving cars.
He said: ‘We have to do everything we can to make sure this doesn’t happen.
“The idea that you have a technological solution to congestion is nonsensical.”
Wolmar described the suggestion that there will be a “critical mass” of self-driving cars by 2047 as “imaginative.”
He added: “I think there is no chance of self-driving cars operating in mixed areas with other traffic in large volumes or in a difficult situation.
“Very little real progress has been made in making cars that can go anywhere in any condition.
“It doesn’t seem feasible.”
Fully self-driving cars are not legal in the UK, but autonomous features are being developed by car manufacturers.
Oxford-based technology company Oxbotica completed its first fully autonomous driverless vehicle test on public roads in May 2022.
In August last year, the DfT said it expected self-driving vehicles to be available for use by 2025.