Scotland’s controversial minimum price policy has been linked to a 13 percent drop in alcohol-related deaths.
New research suggests that 156 deaths per year in Scotland may have been prevented by the price change.
The study looked at deaths caused specifically by alcohol.
But critics have questioned the findings, warning that there is no evidence that the fall in deaths after MUP was introduced was directly caused by the policy.
MUP was introduced in Scotland in May 2018, raising the price of the cheapest, strongest drink, such as strong lager and cider, to a minimum of 50 pence per unit, with the aim of reducing consumption among the heaviest drinkers.
New research suggests that 156 deaths per year in Scotland may have been prevented by the price change. Pictured: Alcohol for sale in a liquor store in Edinburgh
Since then, studies have produced mixed results, including a decline in alcohol sales, but no clear evidence of a change in the habits of people with alcohol dependence, and worryingly, some heavy drinkers are spending less on food and bills to pay for booze.
The most recent study shows that in the first two years and eight months after the policy was introduced, there was a “significant” reduction of 13.4 percent in the number of deaths directly caused by alcohol consumption compared to an estimate, based on data from England, of the number of deaths that would have happened had the law not been enacted.
These include deaths from conditions such as alcohol-related liver disease and acute intoxication.
There was a 4.1 percent reduction in hospitalizations for conditions directly caused by alcohol, equivalent to avoiding an average of 411 hospitalizations per year.
The study, published in The Lancetwas conducted by researchers from Public Health Scotland, the University of Glasgow and the University of Queensland, Australia.
Dr. Grant Wyper, public health adviser at PHS, said: ‘The findings highlight that the greatest reductions were found for men and for those living in the 40 per cent most deprived areas, groups known to consume alcohol disproportionately. health damage in Scotland.
‘We know that those living in the most socio-economically deprived areas in Scotland have more than five times higher alcohol-related death rates than those living in the least deprived areas.
“The results published today are therefore very encouraging in addressing this disparity and the overall magnitude of avoidable harm that affects far too many people.”
However, researchers found that MUP was associated with an increase in deaths and hospitalizations due to short-term conditions caused by alcohol consumption, such as alcohol intoxication, although these findings would not be statistically significant.
One reason could be that some people reduced their spending on food or lowered their food intake due to the financial strain of the policies being implemented, which might have led to faster drunkenness or poisoning.
The report’s authors acknowledged that there was an impact on hospital capacity and attendance during the pandemic, adding to the uncertainty of the study data related to hospital admissions.
But some experts have cast doubt on the findings.
Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said it is theoretically possible that the reduction in deaths was driven by factors other than MUP, such as reduced consumption in the years leading up to the policy.
He said: ‘This is an observational study, and no matter how well controlled for other factors, it can never conclusively prove that the observed changes in deaths were due to minimum unit price policies.
“Overall, in my opinion, some doubt remains as to whether MUP is definitely the cause of the change in alcohol consumption and thus whether it is responsible for the reduction in deaths.”
Dr. Adam Jacobs, senior director for biostatistical sciences at Premier Research, said: “There may be some uncertainty about attributing which deaths were entirely attributable to alcohol consumption, and the paper would be more convincing to me if they presented statistics on mortality from all causes. .
It is important to note that the reduction in hospitalizations did not reach conventional levels of statistical significance.
“It’s plausible that the MUP policy would reduce alcohol-related deaths and hospitalizations, but I don’t think this document shows that convincingly.”
Scottish Health Minister Maree Todd said: ‘I am very pleased with these findings, which underline the value of our industry-leading minimum unit price policy, which has helped drive alcohol sales to an all-time low .
‘We are determined to do all we can to reduce alcohol-related harm, one of the most pressing public health challenges facing Scotland.’