Scientists warn of impending volcanic eruption that humanity is not prepared for

Earth has a one-in-six chance of a massive volcanic eruption this century, scientists warn, and “humanity has no plan to deal with it.”

According to climate professor Dr. Markus Stoffel could cause ‘climate chaos’, comparable to the eruption of Indonesia’s Mount Tambora in 1815.

The eruption released 40 cubic kilometers of gases, dust and rock into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to plummet.

Crops failed, famine spread, diseases increased and tens of thousands of people died.

Unlike the “Year Without a Summer” that followed Tambora’s eruption, a 21st century megavolcano would add to the disruptions already caused by humanity’s dependence on fossil fuels.

“The consequences could be even worse than in 1815,” explained geological scientist Dr. Michael Rampino. ‘The world is more unstable now.’

Ironically, the greenhouse gases released over the past century could make the aftermath of such an eruption even colder.

Volcanologist Dr Thomas Aubry’s research shows that a hotter, more turbulent atmosphere would disperse sulfur dioxide gas – and the cooling sulphate aerosols it forms – more quickly, amplifying the cooling effect.

This coming tectonic event, says climate professor Dr. Markus Stoffel, will “cause climate chaos” reminiscent of the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mount Tambora. Above, an astronaut image (above) shows the 6-kilometer-wide “caldera” of the Mount volcano Tambora

Wider distribution of these sunlight-reflecting compounds in the air would make them more effective by reducing the chance of collisions and clumping.

‘There is a sweet spot in terms of the size of these small and shiny particles,’ says Cambridge atmospheric scientist Dr Anja Schmidt – a ‘just right’ size range ‘where they are very efficient at backscattering sunlight.’

Our future and likely hotter atmosphere, according to a study she co-authored with Dr. Aubry Nature communication in 2021, 30 percent more solar energy would disappear in certain upcoming ‘global warming’ scenarios.

“We suggest this would enhance surface cooling by 15 percent,” Dr Aubry said.

But there are also worrying uncertainties, as Dr. Stoffel, a lecturer at the University of Geneva, said CNN.

“We’re just at the beginning of getting an idea of ​​what could happen,” he said.

When it comes to older volcanoes, “we have very poor data,” Stoffel explains, making it more challenging to reconstruct a model of their impact.

To compensate, climate scientists, geologists and other researchers are collecting atmospheric data frozen in time in ice cores and embedded in ancient ice cores tree rings.

These measurements suggest that several volcanic eruptions over the past several thousand years have temporarily cooled the planet by about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Above is an illustration of the massive eruption of the Mount Tambora volcano in 1815

For example, the epic eruption of Tambora in 1815 dropped the eruption average temperature on Earth by about 1 degree Celsius.

And geological evidence suggests that another major volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 1257, the massive Samalas event, likely helped trigger a ‘Little Ice Age’ that would last hundreds of years.

In contrast, it is more accurately known that the 1991 Mount Pinatubo explosion in the Philippines cooled the Earth by about 0.5 degrees Celsius for several years, based on modern satellite data that can record how much sulfur dioxide was released.

Of course, even with these added sensors and other seismic instruments, scientists still cannot know the future of a volcano.

‘Which next and when,’ said Stoffel, ‘that cannot yet be predicted.’

He hopes that research into the possible worst-case scenarios can help the public and policymakers better prepare, from evacuation plans to preparing food aid in the event of global crop failures.

An eruption in the 21st century would impact a much more populous and interconnected world, where dramatic disruptions could reverberate in deadly and unexpected ways.

Climate change can even alter the behavior of the volcanoes themselves, according to Dr. Aubry, who noted that melting and disappearing glaciers above an underground pool of magma can release the pressure that keeps the volcano in check.

Lava from the December 2023 volcano on the rift of Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula (above) could have been helped by melting glaciers – reducing the weight holding the hot magma in the Earth. “We can therefore potentially expect more eruptions,” scientists warned

More extreme rainfall, escalated by climate change could also lead to “steam bomb”-like explosions as moisture seeps deep into the fissures near both active and dormant volcanoes, he noted.

“We are currently working on mapping the volcanoes that are most sensitive to climate change,” Dr. Aubry said Polytechnic insights last October.

“We know roughly that these are regions where glaciers are melting quickly, such as Iceland or Chile, but also volcanoes that are heavily affected by precipitation, such as in Indonesia,” he says.

A 2022 study found that about 716 volcanoes worldwide, or 58 percent of volcanoes known to be active and above ground, could be triggered by more extreme rainfall, Dr. Aubry explained, raising the possibility of a dangerous mini- ice age increased.

“We can therefore potentially expect more eruptions,” he said.