Before this season, Sam Darnold’s strongest contribution to the NFL canon was “seeing ghosts”.
Darnold was one of several quarterbacks selected early in the first round to flush with the New York Jets. After leaving Florham Park, he alternated between backup and bridge starting roles in Carolina and San Francisco before landing in Minnesota. Now he leads one of the most popular teams in the NFL. While injuries and attrition continue to hamper the Lions, the Vikings are making a late surge for the No. 1 seed in the NFC – and possibly home field advantage in the playoffs.
It’s easy to look at Minnesota’s success and point in every direction but Darnold. You can list off Brian Flores’ crazy defense, Justin Jefferson, a solid offensive line and Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system before meeting the quarterback who makes it all sing. But the reality is that Darnold has played like a top-10 quarterback this season. However, despite his breakout year, it is unclear where he will play next season.
Darnold was brought to Minnesota to build a bridge to the next generation. The Vikings picked up the veteran on a one-year, $10 million deal before selecting JJ McCarthy No. 10 overall in the last draft. But McCarthy’s injury in preseason gave Darnold the opportunity to make the team his own, and through 15 weeks he has produced at a historic pace. Darnold is just the third quarterback in NFL history to reach 3,500 passing yards, 29 TD passes and a 100-plus passer rating in his first 14 games with a team.
Dig beneath the bloopers and the promise of what Darnold is could what had become in New York, Carolina and San Francisco: a strong-armed quarterback who could spray the ball all over the field. But could anyone have imagined it? thisa franchise-caliber quarterback who elevates everyone around him?
Given his surroundings, it’s easy to overlook Darnold’s individual development. He’s teamed with one of the sport’s best offensive minds, a star-studded receiving corps, a blistering running game and a reliable tight end. Early in the season, Darnold was aided by the Vikings’ scheme and a string of the best bookend tackles in the league. In recent weeks, however, Darnold has been under fire, with the Vikings routinely conceding pressures of over 40%. But other than a few mistakes on Monday night against the Bears, Darnold’s play has risen as his offensive line has crumbled.
The Darnold of 2024 is not the same player he was on the Jets. He has evolved. Darnold’s accuracy has improved. He plays on the road. He makes clean throws at an industry-leading clip. While he was once the most panicky quarterback in the league, he has a new sense of calm with the Vikings. In New York, Darnold folded to pressure and turtled when blitzed. Today, Darnold is one of the league’s best quarterbacks when the wallet goes. He is fifth in the league this season in ‘plus accuracy’ when under pressure, a measure of how often he throws his goal open. That’s behind only CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, according to Pro Football Focus.
Seeing ghosts, defenses attacked Darnold by tagging an extra player in the pass rush and blurring their coverage on the back end. Combining extra heat with a shaky defensive rotation disrupted the quarterback’s decision-making. During his ill-fated three seasons with the Jets, Darnold threw 39 interceptions, including 23 against the blitz. He struggled to see the field and threw panicked throws in crowded areas.
The same what-is-he-thinking decisions can be found this season as well. He has 11 interceptions and 18 turnover-worthy plays in 14 starts. But much of the ugliness has been taken out of his game. He handles pressure as well as any quarterback in the league, getting rid of the ball in rhythm and showing a feel for creating plays. And against the blitz, Darnold was money this year. When defenses send five or more pass rushers this season, Darnold has completed 73% of his passes, averaging 12.2 yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns with no interceptions. This season, much of his turnover has come from erratic decisions outside the pocket or relying on his receivers to come down with 50-50 balls.
The idea of Darnold being the one to steal a match is also a thing of the past. When games are tight, he’s improving. As you check off the traits of a franchise starter, he scrolls through the list.
What we’ve seen this season isn’t a quarterback finally living up to his potential, but a player who has redefined his game.
His growth makes Darnold the most intriguing free agent this season. Does the rest of the league buy his transformation from boring, mistake-ridden backup to legitimate starter? Is he Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith? We’ll find out soon.
Darnold’s success combined with McCarthy’s injury has left the Vikings with a fascinating dilemma: will they re-sign Darnold to a bumper contract or will they begin the transition to McCarthy and let Darnold walk?
When Darnold hits the open market, the benchmark for his next contract will likely be Baker Mayfield’s deal with the Bucs. Like Darnold, Mayfield was a former first-round pick who played at his original spot before reviving his career elsewhere. In Tampa, Mayfield showed his credentials as a starter with a one-year, prove-it deal and received a three-year, $100 million contract from the Bucs. But Mayfield did not join an organization that had already chosen their heir to the throne.
Like Mayfield’s contract is Darnold’s starting point in the negotiations: Can the Vikings afford to commit that much money to him with McCarthy already on the books? If not, how long will Darnold’s list of other suitors be?
That’s where things are murky. A sneaky storyline for this upcoming offseason is that many quarterback-needy teams will have little wiggle room to recruit an established veteran, or even take a chance on a reclamation project. Most teams in the league have a long-term starter or a young quarterback they believe in. Even a team like Carolina, which looked like a possible quarterback destination midway through the season, has seen enough of Bryce Young this season to go into next year with the former No. 1 overall pick as the team’s guaranteed starter.
Three teams in dire need of a quarterback (the Saints, Browns and Jets) either have veterans or are stuck in salary cap hell. Even if the Jets can move the cap to create enough space to make Darnold an offer, it’s unlikely he’ll want to return to the franchise that ran him out of town.
That leaves a small list of possible destinations: the Raiders, Giants and Titans. Maybe the Colts will be interested if they sour on Anthony Richardson (again). Matthew Stafford could retire at the end of the season, leaving a clean landing spot for Darnold with the Rams. But if Stafford returns and the Colts choose to trust the process, Darnold will still have three plausible candidates outside of Minnesota.
These three franchises will also look to the draft to find their quarterback of the future. Like the Vikings last season, they will likely look to pair that draftee with a veteran on a cheap deal to get the rookie through their first season. Will Darnold be interested in putting himself in the same situation two seasons in a row? If he chooses to leave Minnesota, it will certainly be for a spot where he is guaranteed to be the starter. If not, why leave Minnesota in the first place? In that scenario, it would make more sense for Darnold to return, even if it means getting a discount. McCarthy will essentially still be a rookie next year, returning from a knee injury. Darnold could keep his starting role until the Vikings feel McCarthy is the better option.
That opens up another possibility: What if Darnold progresses so well as long as he plays in O’Connell’s system? Would the Vikings be open to trading McCarthy a year down the road, without seeing him play in a pinch, if Darnold continues to produce at a top-10 level? Or would they try to emulate the Packers model, seeing McCarthy as the Jordan Love to Darnold’s (don’t laugh) Aaron Rodgers?
The answers to these questions will come in the offseason. But Darnold has proven he’s a starter-level quarterback who can thrive in the right ecosystem. He has shown new aspects of his game, which should encourage a different franchise than his game will translate elsewhere.
Whether or not he moves could depend on how the Vikings finish the season. If Darnold throws away a playoff game, the Vikings may decide it’s time for McCarthy. But there’s a real chance Darnold and the Vikings will keep Lombardi in February. Regardless of whether they win a championship or fall just short, what will follow will be one of the most fascinating quarterback dilemmas in recent league history.