Russia warns of ‘unpredictable’ war escalation sparked by the West’s military aid

Western arms shipments to Ukraine will lead to an ‘unpredictable’ war escalation, the Russian defense minister has claimed. 

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu warned the West against ramping up its arms supplies and said it would only drag NATO into an even more intense and prolonged conflict.

The US, UK, Germany, Canada and other western countries have recently agreed to supply Kyiv with heavy tanks to help Ukraine form a spring offensive against Putin’s military.

Ukraine is also urging allies to send fighter jets and long-range missiles so it can strike targets deeper inside Russian-controlled territory. But western nations have so far rejected these calls.

The defence ministers comments come as Russia continued its fighting in Ukraine’s west and its brutal shelling of civilian targets.

Ukrainian servicemen fire a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system towards Russian positions on a frontline near the town of Marinka, Donetsk, February 7, 2023

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu warned the West against ramping up its arms supplies and said it would only drag NATO into an even more intense and prolonged conflict

Sergei Shoigu today warned the west about its continued military aid involvement. 

Russia’s defence minister said: ‘The U.S. and its allies are trying to prolong the conflict as much as possible.

‘To do this, they have started supplying heavy offensive weapons, openly urging Ukraine to seize our territories. In fact, such steps are dragging NATO countries into the conflict and could lead to an unpredictable level of escalation.’

Shoigu claimed Russia was progressing of the battlefield in the eastern region of Donetsk. This has been the epicentre of hostilities and the scene of some of the heaviest fighting since the invasion in February last year.

‘Military operations are at the moment progressing with success in the areas around Vugledar and Artemovsk,’ Shoigu told a defence meeting using the previous name for Bakhmut.

He listed seven settlements that Russia has recently ‘liberated’, including the salt-mining town of Soledar that came under Russian control in January.

Russian is also continuing the shelling of Ukrainian civilian targets, starting a fire at a town’s hospital and damaging five apartment buildings, local officials said Tuesday.

The hospital in the northeastern town of Vovchansk caught fire late Monday night following the shelling, regional Ukrainian emergency services reported.

The shelling caused multiple fires in the town, including at its two-story municipal hospital, the State Emergency Service in the northeastern Kharkiv region said in an online statement.

A Leopard 2A4 tank is loaded onto a Royal Canadian Armed Forces plane to be sent overseas as part of Canada’s aid to Ukraine in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, February 3, 2023

A member of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine holds a 152 mm howitzer 2A65 Msta-B, near Bahmut, in Donetsk, February 6, 2023

Emergency crews evacuated eight civilians from the site before putting out the blaze, which caused no casualties, authorities said.

Vovchansk is in the Kharkiv region, which was occupied by Russia after its full-scale invasion but was subsequently retaken by Ukraine during a counteroffensive last year.

The anticipated Russian push may seek to recapture territory Moscow lost in that counteroffensive.

Ukrainian officials say they expect the new drive to come in eastern and southern Ukraine, as the Kremlin strives to secure areas it has illegally annexed and where it claims its rule is welcomed.

Russian forces are ‘regrouping’ as they attempt to break Ukrainian lines in five areas in the country’s east and northeast, the Ukrainian military reported Tuesday.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Moscow was focusing its efforts near the towns of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka in the eastern Donetsk region, as well as Kupiansk in the Kharkiv province.

Ukrainian military prepares to fire 152 mm howitzer 2A65 Msta-B, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, February 6, 2023

The Armed Forces of Ukraine fire 152 mm howitzer 2A65 Msta-B near Bahmut, in Donetsk region, February 6, 2023

Members of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire 152 mm howitzer 2A65 Msta-B near Bahmut, in Donetsk region, February 6, 2023

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces also kept up their shelling of Vuhledar, a mining town that has been one of Moscow’s key targets, the Ukrainian presidential office said. Five apartment buildings were destroyed in the town, the office said, which had a prewar population of 14,000.

Donetsk province has seen a marked influx of Russian troops in the past few days, according to regional Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko.

‘The transfer of Russian army units goes on day and night. (Russian) shelling intensifies, pressure from the Russians intensifies each day,’ Kyrylenko said on Ukrainian television.

Russia is also preparing for a major offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, directly north of Donetsk, local Gov. Serhii Haidai said in televised remarks.

The number of Russian attacks in the province increased ‘dramatically’ on Monday and overnight, he said.

‘The occupiers are looking for weak points and have brought a lot of equipment and thousands of troops to the front line,’ Haidai said.

A dozen towns and villages in the northeastern Kharkiv region also came under Russian shelling in the past 24 hours, the presidential office said.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed concern about an uptick in fighting as the winter draws to a close.

A destroyed Russian tank with an artwork on it done by Italian urban artist Tvboy, on February 6, 2023 near the village of Dmytrivka, outside Kyiv

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to load Pion 203mm munitions into a truck, February 5, 2023

Peace prospects ‘keep diminishing’ and ‘the chances of further escalation and bloodshed keep growing,’ he said in a speech late Monday.

Battlefield setbacks have embarrassed the Kremlin, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is keen to cement public support for the war. Ensuring Kremlin rule in the eastern Donbas industrial region, bordering Russia, is expected to be a key objective.

Some military analysts are skeptical, however, about Russia’s ability to mount a large new offensive in coming weeks. Ukraine and Russia are both still training their new troops and amassing weapons.

The UK Ministry of Defense said in an assessment Tuesday that Russia is ‘requiring undermanned, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic objectives due to political and professional pressure.’

‘Russian leaders will likely continue to demand sweeping advances,’ it added. ‘It remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks.’

Michael Kofman, an American military analyst and director of Russia Studies at the CAN, a research organization in Arlington, Virginia, tweeted on Monday it was unclear how big an offensive Russia is able to mount.

He added, ‘but I suspect it may prove underwhelming, focused largely on the Donbas.’

A destroyed house after shelling in Yampil, February 6, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ukrainian service members ride a BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, near the frontline town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, February 6, 2023

Meanwhile, the shelling kept Ukraine’s civilian population under pressure in some areas of the country.

Russia launched six missile and two dozen air attacks as well as 75 shelling incidents hitting civilian targets in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson, over the past 24 hours, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a statement Tuesday.

About 60,000 households in Marhanets were left without water after Russian shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant cut the power supply to a local pumping station, authorities reported.

Mykola Lukashuk, who heads the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council, accused Russian forces of firing on towns and villages neighboring the plant, Europe’s largest, with heavy artillery and multiple rocket-launchers overnight.