Russia-Ukraine war: Will there be a spring counteroffensive?

Europe’s biggest armed conflict since World War II is about to enter a new phase in the coming weeks.

With no suggestion of a negotiated end to the 13-month fighting between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine’s defense minister said last week that a spring counter-offensive could begin as early as April.

Kiev faces an important tactical question: how can the Ukrainian army drive Kremlin forces from land they occupy? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working hard to keep his troops and the general public motivated for a long fight.

Here’s a look at how the fighting has unfolded and how the spring campaign could unfold:

How did the war get here?

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, but its attacks failed to reach some key targets and lost momentum in July. Ukrainian counter-offensives recaptured large areas from August to November.

Then the fighting bogged down in exhausting warfare through the bitter winter and into the muddy, early spring thaw.

Now Kiev can take advantage of better weather to seize the battlefield initiative with new batches of Western weapons, including dozens of tanks, and troops trained in the West.

But Russian troops are dug in deep, lurking behind minefields and along miles of trenches.

How has Russia fared so far?

The war has exposed embarrassing flaws in the Kremlin’s military prowess.

The setbacks on the battlefield include Russia’s failure to reach Kiev in the early days of the invasion, its inability to hold some territories, and its failure to take the ruined eastern city of Bakhmut despite seven months of fighting.

Attempts to break Ukraine’s will to fight, such as brutally attacking the country’s power grid, have also failed.

Moscow’s intelligence services have seriously misjudged Ukraine’s resolve and the West’s response. The invasion also depleted Russian military resources, creating problems with ammunition supplies, morale and troop numbers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, apparently concerned that the war could erode public support for his government, has avoided an all-out triumph through mandatory mass mobilization.

“The Russians have no end to the problems,” said James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

Realizing he can’t win the war any time soon, Putin is trying to lay down and drag out the fighting in the hope that Western support for Kiev will eventually fray, Nixey said.

Russia’s strategy is to “crumble the West,” he said.

What’s next for Ukrainians?

The Ukrainian army starts the season with an influx of powerful weapons.

Germany said this week it had delivered the 18 Leopard 2 tanks it promised to Ukraine. Poland, Canada and Norway also handed over their pledged Leopard tanks. British Challenger tanks have also arrived.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said he hopes Western partners will provide at least two battalions of German-made Leopard 2s by April. He also expects six or seven battalions of Leopard 1 tanks, with ammunition, from a coalition of nations.

Also promised are American Abrams tanks and French light tanks, along with Ukrainian soldiers recently trained in their use.

Western aid has been vital in strengthening Ukraine’s stubborn resistance and determining the course of the war. Zelenskyy recognizes that his country has no chance of triumph without US help.

The new supplies, including howitzers, anti-tank weapons and one million artillery ammunition, will give the Ukrainian army more strength and combat power.

“Few numbers of tanks could drive a deeper wedge into Russian guard positions,” Nixey said.

In their counter-offensive, Ukrainian forces will try to break the land corridor between Russia and the annexed Crimean peninsula, heading from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol and the Sea of ​​Azov, according to Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov.

If successful, the Ukrainians will “split Russian troops into halves and cut supply lines to units further west, towards Crimea,” Zhdanov said.

What could be the endgame?

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, thinks Ukraine will need to launch a series of counter-offensives, not just one, to gain the upper hand.

The operations would have “the dual purpose of convincing Putin to accept a negotiated compromise or to create a military reality sufficiently favorable to Ukraine that Kiev and its Western allies can then freeze the conflict on their own, regardless of Putin’s decisions,” the institute said in an assessment published this week.

Nixey has no doubt that both sides will continue to “tear chunks apart” in the months ahead in hopes of gaining an advantage at the negotiating table.

There may be a period of everything: if Kiev does not make progress on the battlefield with its Western-supplied weapons, allies may become reluctant to send it more of the expensive hardware.

The stakes are high. A defeat for Ukraine would have “global repercussions, and there will be no such thing as European security like us [currently] understand,” said Nixey.