Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ‘s announcement Monday to run as an independent complicates the presidential race, with early polls showing him tying the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
A Fox News poll from Wednesday found that in a three-way race between Trump, who is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, Biden and Kennedy, Biden and Trump tied at 41 percent and Kennedy absorbed 16 percent of the vote.
A Zogby survey conducted for the pro-Kennedy PAC American Values 2024 had similar findings, with Trump and Biden tied at 38 percent and with Kennedy getting 19 percent of the vote.
What’s interesting is that when a generic independent candidate was polled against Trump and Biden, Trump actually won that race 40 percent to Biden’s 38 percent, but when Kennedy—a prominent anti-vaxxer—was asked specifically about he withdrew support from the Republican. former president
“Based on that, we took a few votes away from Trump today — but there’s still more than a year out and given the US political landscape and geopolitical hot spots, a lot can happen between now and Election Day,” pollster Jeremy Zogby said. DailyMail.com.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ‘s announcement Monday to run as an independent complicates the presidential race, with early polls showing him tying the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump
Additionally, the numbers shake out differently in the Fox poll.
In that survey, Biden was one point ahead of Trump if only the two of them were on the ballot — with 49 percent for Biden and 48 percent for Trump.
When Kennedy was added, Biden lost that lead and tied with Trump.
But a two- or three-way election is unlikely, as academic Cornel West has already entered the fray and is likely to appear as the Green Party’s candidate on the 2024 general election ballot.
Fox didn’t test what a four-way race looks like, but instead weighed how West’s bid would affect Biden’s and Trump’s.
West is doing more damage to Biden than Kennedy, the Fox poll found, as West attracts the left wing of the Democratic Party, having been politically aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders during the last two presidential election cycles.
In that three-way race, Trump wins with the support of 45 percent of the electorate, while Biden gets 43 percent and West takes 9 percent of the vote.
Fox found that independents were more likely to go for Kennedy, 41 percent, than West, 28 percent — and that hurt Trump, who does 9 percent better among independents against West than when Kennedy is in the picture.
“Many pundits and practitioners speculated that West would pull from Biden and Kennedy would pull from Trump,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “It may play out over the long term, but third-party or independent candidates tend to draw disproportionately from those who are more independent and less engaged, and that comes out in this poll.”
Part of the speculation is due to another poll, this one from Quinnipiac University, which found that Kennedy was viewed most favorably by Republicans.
Forty-eight percent of Republicans polled had a favorable view of Kennedy, while just 14 percent of Democrats said they liked him.
Among independents, 38 percent said they viewed Kennedy favorably, while 37 percent had an unfavorable view of him.
A Kennedy 2024 bus is parked outside his campaign rally in Miami, Florida, on Thursday. Early poll on his independent presidential run shows him tying the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump
A Quinnipiac University poll from earlier this month showed that Republicans have a more favorable view of Kennedy than Democrats, despite Kennedy having previously run in the Democratic primary.
The biggest hurdle for any presidential candidate is ballot access — essentially, their name will appear on the 2024 general election ballot in every state.
This is why traditional candidates usually run in the Democratic or Republican primaries because those two parties have reserved spots on ballots across the country.
But so do some lesser-known parties, including the Green Party and the Libertarian Party.
The moderate political group, No Labels, is working to secure a place on ballots across the country and will decide whether to field a candidate in April.
The New York Times reported last month on a previously undisclosed meeting Kennedy had with Angela McArdle, the chairwoman of the Libertarian Party, in July, fueling speculation that he could appear on the ballot as their candidate.
NBC News polls conducted last month found Biden trailing when a Libertarian, a Green Party and a No Labels candidate all appeared on the ballot.
Biden and Trump tied with 46 percent support if it’s just the two of them on the ballot.
But when three extra candidates are added to the equation, Biden loses 36 percent to 39 percent to Trump.
In that scenario, a libertarian candidate would take 5 percent of the electorate, a No Labels candidate would shy away from 5 percent and a Green Party candidate would gain the support of 4 percent, the poll found.
Pollsters did not use West’s name when asking respondents about a Green Party choice.
Kennedy was also not tested as a candidate in this particular survey.