Revised NFL season predictions: Chiefs and Jackson up, Jets way down
Back in September, I made my preseason predictions for 2023. Now that the season is halfway over, I’ve looked back to see what I got right and what I got wrong (conclusion: no one is perfect).
Best team not to make the playoffs
Preseason picks: Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m sticking with the Steelers. Their excellent defense still means they are far from a bad team, but their terrible offense means they will slip out of the wildcard spot. they currently occupy.
The Steelers are who we thought they were: a flawed team buoyed by a quality defense in one season collapsing offensive production across the league. On any given week, the Steelers can beat anyone. Their pass rush is among the best in the league. And now that the team has handed playing time to talented rookie Joey Porter Jr., who hides the fossilized Patrick Peterson as much as possible, they also have plenty of coverage on the back end.
The problems lie on offense (fun fact: Texans quarterback CJ Stroud has thrown more career touchdown passes in eight games (14) than Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (13) in 21 starts). We are approaching the mutiny phase of the Matt Canada era. He went through seven college football jobs in nine years before making the jump to the pros, with each stop following a familiar pattern: grandiose statements about innovation, followed by a thunderous realization that the vast majority of his transgressions are nonsense.
Even by Canadian standards, this season has been a failure. Pittsburgh led the league in three-and-outs and failed to get a first down on 47% of their drives. There is no run game, Canada has struggled to get the team’s playmakers involved and Pickett has regressed. In the RBSDM composite, the silliest but also most profound quarterback measurement, Pickett ranks 31st among eligible players, ahead of only, yes, Zach Wilson. Pickett was never going to be a playmaker in the NFL, but any chance he has of becoming a competent starter is hurt by Canada.
A disaster is about to happen…
Pre-season picks: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
On reflection, it feels silly that the Las Vegas Raiders weren’t the obvious choice here. Josh McDaniels showed no signs of learning from his time in Denver. McDaniels spent the 12 years between head coaching jobs evaluating his time with the Broncos and seemed to conclude that everyone else was the problem. That’s why he is 20-33 all-time as a head coach and 12-29 in his last 41 games.
MVP
Pre-season pick: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Midseason pick: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Anyone want to claim this year’s MVP award? Usually it goes to a quarterback with the best story. They’re either a new face, a resurgent star, or someone who has been overlooked for too long. No one fits comfortably into either of those camps this season.
Lawrence and the Jags should win the AFC South, but his performances weren’t consistent or standout enough to make a strong argument. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are not at their supernova best this year, while Josh Allen continues to frustrate. Joe Burrow’s early-season injury left him out before he could even get out of the starting blocks, and Brock Purdy’s mid-season stumbles have made his campaign a non-starter.
So Jackson is the leading candidate at the moment. The Ravens are the most overwhelming team in the NFL in 2023, surpassing all others by whatever metric you choose. They are tops in DVOA, EPA per game and point differential.
Much of the credit for that goes to the defense – and to the wizardry of coordinator Mike Macdonald. But Jackson is playing the most polished football of his career and leading eligible quarterbacks completion rate and rushing yards. If Jackson can remain injury free for the rest of the season, he should win his second MVP.
Rookie to watch
Preseason picks: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Midseason picks: CJ Stroud and Will Anderson, Houston Texans
Robinson is an exciting player, but is a bit underutilized in Atlanta. Meanwhile, popcorn sales in Houston must be off the charts. They have the two most exciting rookies in the league (non-Bijan division). It’s rare for a team to score a goal two picks in the first round (although the Jets succeeded last year). But getting a franchise quarterback is rare to the point of absurdity And a franchise pass rusher the same year.
Most of the attention is, rightly, on Stroud. After the Deshaun Watson debacle, the Texans now have a quarterback to build around. Stroud is not just a star for the future; he’s a star now.
But let’s not forget Anderson. He’s going to have a Khalil Mack-like start to his career. He causes a massacre on every down. He is a dominant run defender who has cracked the Top 20 as a pass rusher. Anderson ranks 18th among all pass rushers in pressure rate versus true pass sets. That may not sound high, but few rookie pass rushers exceed that threshold in their rookie year, and rarely if ever in the first half of the season. The last two rookies to do that? Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa.
Division champions
AFC North – Preseason Pick: Cincinnati Bengals. Midseason pick: Baltimore Ravens.
The Bengals were hampered by Joe Burrow’s early season injury problems. He has since recovered, but the Ravens are the most complete team in football and will be tough to catch.
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AFC East – Preseason Pick: New York Jets. Midseason pick: Miami Dolphins.
Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury blew up the Jets’ season, even with their formidable defense. Miami’s next five games are against the Raiders, the Jets (twice), the Commanders and the Titans. They could win all five and wrap up the division before facing the Bills in Week 17.
AFC West – Preseason picks: Kansas City Chiefs. Midseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs.
There are still tough games on the schedule, but no one will catch the Chiefs.
AFC South – Preseason pick: Jacksonville Jaguars. Midseason pick: Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Texans are (rightly) the trendsetter of the month. But the Jaguars are still the best team in the division.
NFC North – Preseason Pick: Detroit Lions. Midseason pick: Detroit Lions.
Do you already believe in the Lions as a legitimate contender? You should.
NFC East – Preseason Pick: Philadelphia Eagles. Midseason pick: Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly’s next four games: at the Chiefs, against the Bills, against the 49ers, at the Cowboys. Split those four, and the Eagles will be on their way to the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
NFC West – Preseason picks: San Francisco 49ers. Midseason pick: San Francisco 49ers.
Some of the shine has come off the Niners over the past month. But they’re still the second-best team in the NFC.
NFC South – Preseason picks: New Orleans Saints. Midseason pick: New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are the best team of a bad bunch and have an easy schedule as of now.
Wildcard teams
Choices for the season – AFC: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens. NFC: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks.
Mid-season choices – AFC: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns. NFC: Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings.
The Browns defense is brilliant and should get them to the playoffs if Deshaun Watson can get anywhere close to average. In the NFC, the Vikings’ wild-card spot says more about the lack of strong teams in the conference than it does about Minnesota’s quality (it’s easy to cheer for Josh Dobbs, though).
Super Bowl champions
Preseason Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Midseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ problems on offense are well documented. But Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have a way of ironing out any growing pains by the time the postseason rolls around. The chefs have a top-five defense, the best during the Mahomes-Reid partnership. A healthy Mahomes with a suffocating defense will be difficult to stop in the postseason.