Revealed: What the average British family will look like in 2095, according to science

Family dinners will be a lot quieter in the future, according to scientists.

By analyzing population trends, researchers at the Max Planck Society found that families are getting smaller and older.

In 1950, the average 65-year-old woman had 41 living relatives.

But by 2095, an average woman of the same age will only have 25, according to experts.

The structure of families will also change, as grandparents and even great-grandparents live longer, while fewer children are born.

Researchers have long been concerned that declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy could lead to an aging population.

However, lead researcher Diego Alburez-Gutierrez from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock says that previous studies have not examined how this will affect the structure of families.

Mr. Alburez-Gutierrez explained, “We wondered how demographic changes will affect the ‘gift’ of kinship in the future.

‘What was the size, structure and age distribution of families in the past, and how will they evolve in the future?’

In the study, Mr. Alburez-Gutierrez and his co-authors analyzed historical and projected data from the United Nations’ 2022 revision of the world population forecasts.

To understand how families are likely to change, they focused on the average 65-year-old woman.

Their analysis shows that her family size will shrink steadily across the world over the next seventy years, with the decline being most pronounced in Latin America and the Caribbean.

There, the average family of 65-year-old women will shrink from 56 living relatives in 1950 to just 18.3 in 2095 – a decline of 67 percent.

By contrast, family sizes in Europe and North America, where fertility rates are already low, will remain largely unchanged.

The data also showed that the difference between family sizes in different countries is likely to disappear as we approach the end of the century.

In 1950 there was a relative difference of 31 between the average family of 65-year-old women in Latin America and the Caribbean, and between Europe and North America.

However, the researchers predict that by 2095 the largest gap between two regions will be just 20 living relatives.

These same trends were also reflected at the level of individual countries.

While an average Zimbabwean woman approaching age 65 in 1950 could expect to have 82 living relatives, her counterpart in 2095 is expected to have only 24.1 relatives.

In Italy, where the average 65-year-old woman has the smallest family of any country, the number of living relatives will only drop from 18 to 12.7.

However, it is not only the size of families that will change, but also their ‘kinship configuration’.

The average family of the future will consist of far fewer nieces, nephews, cousins ​​and grandchildren.

However, it is expected that the number of grandparents and great-grandparents will increase sharply.

The researchers say the shape of this shift will be determined by the balance of four factors: a decline in infant mortality, an increase in life expectancy, lower fertility and delayed fertility.

While reduced infant mortality increases the number of siblings and cousins, lower and more delayed fertility reduces this rate.

Likewise, increased life expectancy increases the likelihood that people will live long enough to become grandparents and great-grandparents.

However, delayed fertility reduces the chance that someone will live long enough to become a grandparent.

To see how these different factors interact, the researchers took the example of China, where the one-child policy has already caused massive shifts in family structures.

The family network of a Chinese newborn in 1950 consisted mainly of their eleven cousins, who constituted 39 percent of their surviving family.

The rest of the family consisted largely of their eight uncles and aunts, while grandparents and great-grandparents often did not survive the birth of the child.

However, the researchers predict that a Chinese newborn will have an average of only 1.1 cousins ​​by 2095.

At the same time, the number of living relatives of the newborn is predicted to increase, as there is a 100 percent chance that all four grandparents will still be alive.

The researchers say these predictions have worrying implications for the future of healthcare.

For every 65-year-old, the availability of family members who can provide care and support, also known as ‘kinship resources’, will be significantly lower in the future.

Mr Alburez-Gutierrez said: ‘As the age gap between individuals and their relatives widens, people will have family networks that are not only smaller, but also older.’

Although a person may have more grandparents and great-grandparents, chances are that he or she needs more help than he or she can provide support.

Britain is already starting to feel the impact of an aging population, as demand for adult social care increases.

However, the greatest impacts will be felt in the developing countries of the South, where demographic shifts will be greatest.

“These seismic shifts in family structure will pose important societal challenges that policymakers in the global North and South must take into account,” Mr. Alburez-Gutierrez added.

This research has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.