Revealed: The Premier League’s biggest underachievers based on expected points compared to money spent… but where does YOUR club rank?
A new study has revealed which Premier League club has been the biggest underachiever in the 2023-2024 season, based on expected points compared to expenditure.
Manchester City guided Arsenal to the title at the end of a dramatic title race that initially looked like Liverpool would also challenge for the championship on the final day before falling away.
In doing so, Pep Guardiola’s side made it four in a row – the first side ever to do so – reaffirming their high but intuitive spending during the ex-Barcelona boss’s tenure.
In fact, Manchester City was one of 12 sides to see their transfer activities yield positive results, according to a survey by Twenty First Group for The times.
The research calculates the expected points for each team in the Premier League based on figures from their most recent financial accounts (2022-2023), to show which club has proven to be the best value for money over the course of the season.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City won the Premier League on the final day after a 3-1 victory over West Ham
According to the data, Manchester United was unsurprisingly among the largest spenders
The expected number of points is arrived at based on the historical impact of the spend on the points collected. According to the Times, teams that spend double the average spend usually end up with 66 points, while teams that spend 20 percent less earn 42 points.
It is perhaps unsurprising that given their massive spending in recent transfer windows, Chelsea have emerged as the biggest underachievers on the list.
The Blues managed to secure Europa League football despite a very poor first half of the season, but Mauricio Pochettino left by mutual consent on Tuesday evening, with his future under heavy scrutiny throughout the end of the season.
But after spending a total of £607 million on wages and amortization in 2022-2023 and a further £75 million in agent fees in 2023-2024 – a total of £682 million in the league – the club was expected to earn 87 points, about 24 less. than their actual return of 63.
“Chelsea’s significant write-downs and agent fee costs (both at least 20 percent more than the next highest clubs) left them with the highest total costs in the league,” said Omar Chaudhuri, head of intelligence at Twenty First Group.
‘Their budget, compared to the average team in the league, would historically have yielded around 87 points, so 63 points represents a significant underachievement.
‘However, their form from April onwards was in line with an 87-point season, suggesting they may perform closer to budget next season.’
The Blues are joined at the bottom of the list by fellow big-hitters Manchester United, whose 60 points were considered 14 below their expected target after spending £535 million in the same three categories.
Mauricio Pochettino left Chelsea by mutual consent on Tuesday evening after finishing sixth
The Argentina boss had lost just three games in 2024, a stunning highlight of the campaign
Manchester United also fell well below their expected points after total costs of £535 million
Sheffield United are sandwiched between the two giants with a -21 point gap on their £118m spend in a dismal campaign that sees the Blades immediately return to the Championship, with Burnley level on points with United on -14, although they have spent much less (£129 million) .
At the other end of the table are the four teams that secured Champions League football in Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa, the top four of the pound-for-pound success table.
The Gunners led the way, with an outperformance of a whopping 27 points – more than the season figures of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United – with a total cost of £399 million expected to earn them 62 points, which would have them in seventh place brought into the 2023 -24 final table.
Mikel Arteta’s side invested 25 to 40 percent less than the likes of Chelsea and United, but ultimately outperformed them by 26 and 29 points respectively.
Chaudhuri added: ‘Arsenal’s overachievement exceeds even the level Liverpool achieved when they challenged for the titles between 2018 and 2022, but it has not been enough to take them into the 90-point range needed to win the competition to win.
‘Manchester City continues to overperform. Their expenditure is comparable to that of Chelsea and Manchester United, who have shown that an annual spend of more than £500 million does not guarantee 80 points, let alone 90.’
In second place was Unai Emery’s Aston Villa with a 14-point lead, followed by Liverpool (+10) and champions City (+9).
Interestingly, Manchester City had the second highest total spend – £629 million – yet finished fourth in this study, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of their recruitment department.
Mikel Arteta’s side finished top of the pound-for-pound success table after opening up a 27-point lead
Sheffield United finished lowest of the newly promoted sides in terms of underperformance, finishing 21 points behind their expected total
Newcastle and Bournemouth both finished seven points better off than expected with expenditures of £292m and £157m respectively, ahead of four teams tied at +6.
West Ham (£216m), Crystal Palace (£182m) and Brighton (£172m) all spent roughly similar amounts, finishing ninth (52 points), 10th (49 points) and 11th (48 points) respectively. .
As for Tottenham, who were also six points better off than expected, they earned £379 million and finished 10th in the pound-for-pound table behind the other three.
Fulham finished three points better off than expected, going by the data, after a £197 million spend earned them 47 points, while Brentford performed exactly as expected, finishing on 39 points after earning £138 million.
Both Everton (48 points) and Wolves (46 points) finished just one point worse off than they should have, with the Toffees actually ending the season on 40 points due to points penalties, although the study did not take this into account.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have had a remarkable season, finishing top of the Champions League, some 14 points above expectations
Manchester City won a sixth Premier League title in seven years but only finished fourth
| Team | Wages (2023) | Depreciation (2023) | Agent costs (2024) | Total costs | Expected points | Actual points | Difference | |
| Arsenal | £235 million | £139 million | £25 million | £399 million | 62 | 89 | 27 | |
| Aston Villa | £194 million | £93 million | £21 million | £308 million | 54 | 68 | 14 | |
| Liverpool | £373 million | £108 million | £32 million | £512 million | 72 | 82 | 10 | |
| Men’s city | £423 million | £145 million | £61 million | £629 million | 82 | 91 | 9 | |
| Newcastle United | £187 million | £87 million | £19 million | £292 million | 53 | 60 | 7 | |
| Bournemouth | £100 million | £41 million | £16 million | £157 million | 41 | 48 | 7 | |
| Crystal Palace | £131 million | £40 million | £11 million | £182 million | 43 | 49 | 6 | |
| West Ham | £137 million | £65 million | £14 million | £216 million | 46 | 52 | 6 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | £128 million | £33 million | £11 million | £172 million | 42 | 48 | 6 | |
| Tottenham | £251 million | £109 million | £20 million | £379 million | 60 | 66 | 6 | |
| Fulham | £139 million | £46 million | £12 million | £197 million | 44 | 47 | 3 | |
| Brentford | £99 million | £31 million | £8 million | £138 million | 39 | 39 | 0 | |
| Everton | £159 million | £78 million | £11 million | £247 million | 49 | 48 | -1 | |
| Wolves | £142 million | £79 million | £13 million | £234 million | 47 | 46 | -1 | |
| Luton town | £61 million | £16 million | £2 million | £80 million | 34 | 26 | -8 | |
| Nottingham forest | £145 million | £41 million | £13 million | £199 million | 44 | 36 | -8 | |
| Burnley | £86 million | £36 million | £7 million | £129 million | 38 | 24 | -14 | |
| Man united | £331 million | £170 million | £34 million | £535 million | 74 | 60 | -14 | |
| Sheffield United | £81 million | £32 million | £5 million | £118 million | 37 | 16 | -21 | |
| Chelsea | £404 million | £203 million | £75 million | £682 million | 87 | 63 | -24 | |
| *Data from Twenty First Group, via The Times | ||||||||
Luton and Nottingham Forest then fall into 15th and 16th place respectively, with the Hatters spending a low £80m across the three cost categories but finishing eighth out of an expected 34.
Forest also missed the expected number by eight points, having been expected to reach 44 – the same as Fulham – after spending £199 million.
Overall, the research suggests, as many might predict, a trend towards clubs finishing higher in the league table and operating on the most efficient financial system, recruiting players for prices lower than or closely equal to their performance on the field.
Likewise, those lower down the table appeared to overspend on players who don’t necessarily seem to make that much of a difference on the pitch, with Chelsea and Man United notably among the biggest spenders.