WASHINGTON — A chaotic year for the House of Representatives is coming to an end, with more Democrats than Republicans choosing to leave the chamber, a disparity that could have major consequences in next year's elections.
About two dozen Democrats have indicated they will not seek re-election, while half are running for other elected office. Meanwhile, only fourteen Republicans have said they are not seeking another term, while three Republicans are seeking elected office elsewhere.
More retirements can be expected after the holidays, when lawmakers have had a chance to spend time with their families and make decisions ahead of reelection deadlines. But so far, the numbers don't indicate that dysfunction in the House of Representatives is causing a mass exodus for either party.
“The members kind of knew that this is what the institution currently looks like when they chose to run for office,” said Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank that maintains a database of vital statistics about Congress , including retirements. . “Some of them may feel frustrated right now, but everyone who has been elected to Congress in recent years is not surprised by what they encounter when they get to Washington.”
The Republicans certainly had the most high-profile exits. Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., became only the third lawmaker expelled by colleagues since the Civil War. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., was the first speaker ever to be removed from that office by his colleagues. He chose to leave on December 31 rather than serve in the rank and file.
But it's the departure of a handful of Democrats in competitive districts that has Republicans thinking the overall pension picture gives them an advantage in determining who will control the House of Representatives after the 2024 elections.
Reps. Katie Porter of California, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia proved they could win congressional districts in good election cycles for Democrats and in bad cycles. They all aspire to higher office in their home states. Porter and Slotkin are running for U.S. Senate. Spanberger wants to become governor in 2025.
Democrats are also losing six-term Rep. Dan Kildee of Michigan to retirement, leaving them with a competitive open seat to defend in a state that will be crucial in the presidential election. Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-Va., is not seeking reelection because of health concerns in a district that leans Democratic but is more competitive than most.
On the other side of the aisle, Republicans leaving office generally represent districts that Democrats have little chance of winning. They will be replaced by Republicans, predicted Representative Richard Hudson, the chairman of the House Republican campaign arm.
“Pensions are a big problem for Democrats. They are not a problem for us,” Hudson said.
The exception is Santos, who represented a competitive district in New York. Democrats hope former Rep. Tom Suozzi can win back the seat, which he gave up when he unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022.
Republican Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma said he found it “a bit of a surprise” that the number of Democrats leaving office exceeded the number of Republican exits, given everything that has happened this year.
“Politically, I think we're very well positioned for 2024,” Cole said. “I just think the margins will remain small no matter who wins. The number of competing seats is so much lower than it was ten years ago, the polarization is so much greater, that it is difficult to move large numbers. Whoever wins the presidency will probably win the House.”
Sometimes state legislatures have the final say in determining the composition of Congress. It's one of the reasons there are so few competitive races.
Three incumbent House Democrats from North Carolina have essentially had little chance of returning after GOP lawmakers in the state drew new boundaries for their congressional districts. What were once competitive seats became almost a lock for any Republican emerging from the state's primaries.
Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson decided to run for attorney general instead of trying to run again for a Charlotte-area seat he just won in the 2022 midterm elections. Rep. Wiley Nickel, a fellow freshman who flipped a toss-up district in the last election, also announced he would not run for office, instead focusing on a possible U.S. Senate bid in 2026. And Rep. Kathy Manning said she won' Under current maps, it would not be up for re-election, but would run if a federal lawsuit to overturn the new districts is successful.
Manning said the city of Greensboro in her district was split into three parts and combined with rural counties. She won in 2022 by a margin of 9 percentage points, but she said the new district gives a Republican candidate a 16-point lead.
Democrats hope that court-ordered redistricting in Alabama and Louisiana will favor their side and effectively doom the redistricting fight.
Ambition also plays a role in pension trends. About half of Democrats not seeking reelection to the House of Representatives are seeking office elsewhere. That includes three members running for the seat once held by California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who joined the Senate in 1992 and served for more than three decades before her death in September. Slotkin is running for the seat that Senator Debbie Stabenow has held for more than two decades. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota is running for president against fellow Democrat Joe Biden.
“If you are interested in a higher position, you will be sensitive to such things. They don't always come up,” Reynolds said.
Still, a few lawmakers attribute their departures, at least in part, to the dysfunction they witnessed in Congress.
Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins of New York does not plan to wait until the election is announced. He will retire sometime in February.
“We spend more time on less. And the American people are not being served,” he said last month when announcing his retirement.
Republican Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., described a similar sense of frustration in his retirement announcement. He has criticized Republican leaders for “lying to America” that the 2020 election was stolen and downplaying the Jan. 6 insurrection.
“Our nation is on a collision course with reality and is firmly committed to the truth,” Buck said.