- Poll shows Peter Dutton preferred as prime minister
- But Labor claims Dutton is ‘unelectable’
Two rival polls tell a similar story as parliament reconvenes for another two weeks.
With elections fast approaching, Anthony Albanese must dispel the impression among voters that he and his team are unable to manage the economy in these difficult times.
The Newspoll has Labor’s primary vote down 32 percent compared to a Coalition primary of 39 percent. The Resolve poll puts Labor’s primary vote at just 29 percent, but the Coalition vote is also down slightly according to Resolve, at 37 percent.
Both polls show a large crossbench vote, suggesting a split parliament could emerge, possibly with a balance of power between the Greens (and the Blue and Blacks).
But the real question for the major parties is who voters will entrust with economic leadership after the next election.
The Labour Party still has work to do on this front, even though no government has lost re-election in its first term since 1931. In the area of economic management, the Labour Party lags behind the Coalition.
It is unusual for opposition leaders to do well on the preferred PM rating in their first term, but Peter Dutton narrowly leads Albo, 36 percent to 35 percent, according to Resolve. He trails the PM slightly, according to Newspoll.
Perhaps the most important point is that nearly a third of respondents in both polls chose neither option.
Labor likes to claim that Dutton is ‘unelectable’, a point that many commentators echo. If that is the case, then so is the current elected prime minister, who is seeking a second term.
One poll shows Anthony Albanese (pictured) as less popular than Peter Dutton. And Labor’s economic management credentials have fallen into disarray.
Greens running the economy? If Labour becomes a minority government after the next election, the Greens’ power will increase
Not that Albo is Labor’s biggest problem. That prize goes to Finance Minister Jim Chalmers, who has been criticised by the Reserve Bank for stoking inflation with his spending, tax cuts and benefits. His economic management credentials are in tatters.
The Resolve poll found that only 23 percent of voters would prefer Labor to run the country’s finances. For the Coalition, that was 41 percent, a significant difference. And a real problem for Labor if economic management is the only option.
Most voters believe that the Labor Party is likely to win a second term (Newspoll stresses that they believe the party will be forced into a minority government). It is therefore not surprising that 56 percent of Resolve voters expect the economic situation to deteriorate in the next 12 months.
This is a dangerous situation for Labor. It could be a legitimate favourite for the next election – starting with 78 seats compared to the Coalition’s 57.
But with a Chancellor of the Exchequer who voters consider hopeless in the job, a Prime Minister less favourable than an unpopular opposition leader and a pre-election result in the low 20s according to one poll, Labor is not in good shape.
Jim Chalmers (pictured) is being attacked by the Reserve Bank for stoking inflation
Unelectable? New poll suggests otherwise for Peter Dutton
When you add to this the fact that voters expect a hung parliament – and that the Greens will inevitably govern with Labor in such a situation – it is a devilish mix. Especially when economic management is the main game.
How can the Labour Party hope to recover from its poor position as an economic steward when the Chancellor of the Exchequer is bad at his job, the Prime Minister is unpopular and the expected outcome is that the Labour Party is dependent on the support of the Greens to form a minority government?
Especially when the Reserve Bank tells us it is concerned that the Labour Party’s spending spree is fuelling inflation.
Yes, it would be unusual for a first-term opposition party, with little talent in its ranks, to return to power so quickly after losing office under difficult circumstances.
But if voters decide that returning to the Coalition is a lesser evil than sticking with a party they don’t trust to manage the economy, when that’s the most worrying thing on people’s minds, then history may be made at the next election. We could see a government lose its first term for the first time in almost 100 years.