One county in Washington state predicted the winner of the last 11 elections and is struggling with this election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Bellweather counties are areas where the winner is chosen from election to election, regardless of party.
Although they have become less relevant due to increasing political polarization in the US, Clallam County has done “well” in every election since 1980.
With the close election between Harris and Trump less than two months away, residents are still uncertain which way the region will go. Democrats are back in full force thanks to Harris, but Republicans are still furious about crime and inflation.
Perhaps the one thing the county’s Trump and Harris voters agreed on was this: The debate changed nothing.
One county in Washington state, Clallam, has predicted the winner of the last 11 elections and is wrestling with this one between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Bellweather counties are known for being areas that pick the winner from election to election, regardless of party. While they have become less of a story as political polarization in the U.S. has increased, Clallam County has done “well” in every election since 1980
Independent voter and Trump supporter William Lewis, 73, says he “didn’t learn anything I didn’t already know” from the debate and that the former president is the clear and obvious choice: “Anyone who doesn’t see that doesn’t know what they’re looking at,”
He told the LA Times the game in Philadelphia ‘was just the same, but the two of us were in the same room instead of in different places.’
Jeanne Viramonte, 74, also votes for the independent party and feels the same way, but that’s only because she’s tired of looking at Trump all the time.
“His views on women are horrible, so no, I’m not going to watch him. I’m not going to vote for him.”
Although the state has chosen the president in the last 11 elections, the state traditionally has a slight Democratic bias.
In 2018 and 2022, the state helped elect its two Democratic senators, Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray.
However, Cantwell only won by 3.4 points over Clallam and Murray by an even smaller 1.4 points.
Additionally, Joe Biden won the county by 3.4 points in 2020, but incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee lost Clallam to a Republican by 0.6 points.
Harris hopes to pick up where Joe Biden left off after winning the county in 2020
However, Trump and Republicans also have high hopes in 2024, as the incumbent Democratic governor lost Clallam County
Washington state holds “jungle” primaries, where the top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.
Cantwell won the primary overall, but with only 55 percent of the vote in the August primary. She will face Republican Raul Garcia in November.
For Republicans, the Democratic candidate for governor, Bob Ferguson, may be even more attractive, having won just 44.9 percent of the vote in the primary.
Still, he defeated his Republican opponent in the general election, Dave Reichert, by 17 points.
Now that the once-strong logging industry has largely been eroded, the region’s 80,000 residents are heavily dependent on tourism.
“There’s a real distrust of both political parties and the bullshit they’re trying to sell us,” said 37-year-old owner Sam Grello.
“It ultimately comes down to who will help our community the most. Are you willing to look at the problems and address them? Or are you an ideologue? Do ideas or people come first?”
Grello had planned to turn a blind eye to Joe Biden, but will enthusiastically vote for Harris.
Washington Sen. Patty Murray won Clallam County in 2022 by just 1.4 points
Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee lost the county by less than a point in 2020
“I won’t be ashamed to have her as president. I don’t have to think about her so much. I want to be able to focus on my job, and not have to worry about the president doing his job.”
However, Biden’s incumbent presidency is a huge turn-off for conservative voters like 72-year-old Pam Blakeman, a Republican leader from her region who hates inflation and crime.
“I don’t go to restaurants like I used to. It’s way too expensive. I used to walk around everywhere, anywhere. I don’t do that anymore. I’m on my guard,” she said.
Kim Butler, 66, adds: ‘I think they’re spending money on programs that are just going to bankrupt our country, like student loans. They have no authority… They’re just trying to buy votes.
Harris is still expected to win Washington, as the Cook Political Report has rated the state a “Solid D,” but counties like Clallam could be the canary in the coal mine for Democrats in November.
And since voters in the region have no party registration, America will have to wait and see which way things go when the votes are counted.