A barrage of artillery shells hit a poor neighborhood in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, on May 31.
Residents say the attack killed at least 18 civilians and 106 injured in a local market, but no one knows if it came from the Sudanese army or the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – the two sides that have plunged the country into war to try and overcome each other.
Residents said the RSF was deployed to the area shortly after the incident, resulting in continued street fighting with the military and fears that more civilians will die in the crossfire.
“The area is still being bombed as a result of the clashes between the two sides,” said Fadeel Omer, 25, an activist from Mayo, the area where the attack took place.
“But with [the RSF’s] deployment in the area, there is more fear of them than the [army’s] bombings,” he added.
The market attack could be the start of some serious escalation to come. The day before, the army withdrew from ceasefire talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The announcement suggested army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is preparing for a major offensive to recapture the capital from the RSF, residents and experts told Al Jazeera.
Al-Burhan said he was open to it to resume talks three days later, but the RSF claimed it was impossible to meet the military’s conditions. An army official reportedly said the army had called on the RSF to stop occupying people’s homes and hospitals before resuming negotiations.
Both sides have since been hit by US sanctions in an effort to target their war chests. With neither side giving in, some citizens feared they would bear the brunt of a sharp increase in violence. Others said they supported a major army attack.
“If that’s what it takes to get rid of the RSF, then so be it,” said Mohamad Jamal, a resident of Khartoum. “We are being abused by them.”
Dead in the water?
RSF, whose stronghold is in the western province of Darfur, has never had a large constituency in Khartoum, a city traditionally home to Sudan’s middle class and business elite.
Despite the lack of support, the militia has made no effort to win hearts and minds in the capital, despite claiming support for democracy on its social media networks.
The group has instead spread across the city to terrorize residents by looting homes, kidnapping young men and raping women, residents and victims, Al Jazeera told.
RSF’s human rights violations have led many people to view the military as the lesser of two evils, with some overlooking the latter’s indiscriminate air campaign. According to ACLED, a nonprofit organization that collects real-time conflict data, the military routinely hits civilian targets such as hospitals, schools and homes.
Kholood Khair, a Sudanese analyst and founder of the Confluence Advisory think tank, told Al Jazeera that a major army offensive could jeopardize their support if they do too much damage to the civilian population.
“The army cannot afford to lose the support – historical or symbolic – of its citizens in Khartoum, because then they are really dead in the water,” she said.
“The RSF just waits and urges the military to bomb the city so that its [human rights] abuses may pale in comparison to the people killed indiscriminately in military attacks,” she added.
Despite the risk a major army offensive poses to civilians, Khair said the army will likely continue to prove to their supporters that they can liberate parts of the city.
An attack would also aim to gain some much-needed clout before negotiations resume with the RSF, she said.
“[An army] offensive would have two goals. First, it is to demonstrate that they can achieve military victories against the RSF, and [the second] is to save face before entering a new platform for dialogue.”
Brace yourself for battle
In Mayo, the area where residents were killed and seriously injured three days ago, Omer said many people are taking precautions to avoid the impending offensive.
Some have fled to other parts of the city, while others are considering fleeing Khartoum if they can.
“There is indeed fear of a military attack in it [Khartoum]Omer told Al Jazeera. “The talks in Jeddah represented a glimmer of hope for [everyone] to get out of the crisis. But after the withdrawal of the army, some people’s dreams of ending the war faded.”
Since the start of the war, many people have sought refuge in Port Sudan, a city in the east that is under full military control. But the military recently stopped allowing buses into the city, blaming an alleged RSF plot to sneak in spies.
According to the army statement, people fear RSF could launch attacks on Port Sudan in response to a major offensive on Khartoum.
“The [army] has already closed the Port Sudan region and no one understands why,” said 25-year-old Sammer Hamza, who escaped to the city from Khartoum last week.
“At night we hear gunshots and bullets, but nobody knows what’s going on. I just hope nothing happens here. If a war breaks out in Port Sudan, then we are going to lose all of Sudan,” she added.
Back in Khartoum, activists prepare for an increase in casualties. Omer said he spends most of his time at a local hospital helping to rescue people who survived the market attack.
“We [activists] do everything they can to save lives and limit the damage [in our neighbourhood] by providing health assistance,” he said.