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A chilling warning that the Reserve Bank is now at risk of plunging Australia into recession – but that won’t save borrowers from ANOTHER rate hike next month
- CommSec has warned that aggressive rate hikes could spark a recession in Australia
- The five consecutive months of increases were the worst since 1994
- In the minutes of the September meeting of the Reserve Bank, the word ‘inflation’ was mentioned 41 times
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One of Australia’s ‘Big Four’ banks has warned that continued aggressive rate hikes could send Australia into recession.
Borrowers have endured five consecutive monthly rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia since May, taking it to a seven-year high of 2.35 percent.
Interest rates haven’t escalated that quickly since 1994, which nearly led to a recession, according to CommSec economists Craig James and Ryan Felsman.
“The economy escaped recession in 1995 after the interest rate hikes, but came close, with zero growth in the March quarter, followed by growth of just 0.4 percent in the June quarter,” they said.
In the minutes of the September meeting of the Reserve Bank – which voted to raise interest rates by another 0.5 percentage point – the word inflation was mentioned 41 times.
The Reserve Bank is warned that its aggressive rate hikes could send Australia into recession. Borrowers have endured five consecutive monthly increases in the cash interest rate since May, taking it to a seven-year high of 2.35 percent (pictured is Governor Philip Lowe)
“In considering the policy decision, members noted that inflation in Australia was at its highest level in decades and is expected to rise further in the coming months,” the report said.
Global factors continued to explain much of the rise in inflation.
“However, domestic factors also played a role, with widespread upward pressure on prices due to strong demand, a tight labor market and capacity constraints in some sectors of the economy.”
Inflation in the year to June rose 6.1 percent and the Reserve Bank of Australia expected it to hit a 32-year high of 7.75 percent as a result of Covid supply constraints and the Russian invasion of Ukraine that pushed prices of crude oil up.
However, the RBA still expected inflation to return to the higher level of the target of two to three percent by 2024.
The minutes noted that wages – which grew just 2.6 percent in the year to June – were unlikely to lead to a wage-price spiral.
“Wage growth had increased from the low rates of previous years and there were some places where labor costs rose sharply,” it said.
“However, members noted that the rate of base wage growth had not hitherto reached levels that would be incompatible with achieving the inflation target on a sustainable basis.”
CommSec economists Craig James and Ryan Felsman said aggressive rate hikes nearly led to a recession in the mid-1990s (pictured is an Aldi supermarket in Sydney)
The Reserve Bank only used the word ‘recession’ once, and that was referring to the yield curve – the gap between the market yield on government bonds and the target rate in each country.
There was no mention of Australia being close to a recession, a situation most recent since 1991 that last happened in 2020 as a result of the first Covid lockdowns.
Treasury yield curves in a number of advanced economies – including Canada, the UK and the US – were flat or sloped, signaling market concerns about the possibility of recessions in these economies,” the Reserve Bank said.
Commonwealth Bank – the parent company of online broker CommSec – expected the RBA to raise its spot interest rate by 0.25 percentage point in October.
This would be followed by another quarter of a percentage point in November, bringing the spot rate to 2.85 percent.