Research shows that myopia will affect 740 million children and teenagers by 2050
More than one in three children and teenagers are short-sighted, according to the world’s largest study, leading to calls to discourage screen time and increase exercise.
Nearsightedness, or myopia, is an eye condition in which a person cannot see objects far away clearly. It is usually corrected with glasses or contact lenses.
Experts aren’t sure why it happens, but studies have shown that children who use computers or smart devices for long periods of time are at greater risk. Some say spending more time outdoors can help.
The most comprehensive global analysis to date shows that myopia has increased dramatically over the past 30 years, with the number of cases of myopia among children and teenagers expected to reach more than 740 million by 2050.
Girls and children or teenagers living in urban areas are more likely to develop the condition, the analysis found published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology.
Myopia typically begins in early childhood and worsens with age, according to researchers led by Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, China. The condition has become a major public health problem, they added.
The most recent global review of its prevalence ran through 2015. To get a more up-to-date picture to inform health care policy and preventive efforts, the researchers estimated the current and future prevalence of myopia through 2050 among people aged five to 19.
They based their work on all relevant studies and government reports published up to June 2023. They included a total of 276 studies, involving more than five million children and teenagers and almost 2 million cases of myopia from 50 countries in Europe, North and South America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.
The data from all the studies were then pooled, taking into account geographic and other variables.
The analysis found that prevalence increased from 24% in 1990-2000 to 25% in 2001-2010, followed by sharper increases to 30% in 2011-2019 and 36% in 2020-2023.
Based on figures and trends through 2023, the global prevalence of myopia is expected to reach about 40% by 2050, with more than 740 million cases, compared to 600 million in 2030, the researchers estimate.
The risk is expected to be higher in girls and young women than in boys and young men, and higher in 13- to 19-year-olds than in 6- to 12-year-olds.
The Covid pandemic may have played a role in the sharp increase after 2020, the researchers said. “Emerging evidence suggests a possible link between the pandemic and accelerated vision decline in young adults,” they wrote.
Gender differences in prevalence may be explained by the fact that girls reach puberty earlier than boys and spend less time outdoors and more time on short-distance activities, the researchers suggested. They called for more physical activity and less screen time for all children and teens.
The researchers acknowledge that their findings have limitations, including differences in the design and methodology of the studies included in their pooled data analysis.
“Despite these known limitations, given the large sample size, our estimates of myopia prevalence are considered close to the precise number,” they wrote, adding, “It is crucial to recognize that myopia may become a global health burden in the future.”