Nearly three weeks ago, after Joe Biden was forced to resign as the Democratic presidential nominee and amid the first wave of growing enthusiasm for his replacement, Kamala Harris, I argued that this was still Donald Trump’s election to lose. But if he didn’t get his campaign under control, he would lose it.
Since then, Harris’ star has risen and Trump’s campaign has gone from bad to worse. As it stands, Trump looks more like a loser than a winner.
Of course, a lot can happen between now and November 5—and probably will in this feverish and surprising American election campaign. But things will get worse for Trump before they get better, if they ever get better.
Since Harris was offered Biden’s nomination without any opposition from the Democratic leadership, she has monopolized the news, much to Trump’s ire.
His anger is heightened by the fact that her rallies now rival his in numbers and enthusiasm. This is particularly frustrating for a man for whom crowd size is a key measure of success; and publicity is as essential to his well-being as oxygen is to the rest of us.
As it stands, Trump looks more like a loser than a winner. Of course, a lot can happen between now and November 5 — and probably will in this feverish and surprising American election campaign. But things will get worse for Trump before they get better, if they ever get better.
Harris will continue to dominate headlines at the Democratic Party Convention later this month in Chicago. It will be a glittering, star-studded primetime coronation of Queen Kamala, carrying her into Labor Day (the first Monday in September), the day the campaign actually begins.
She will go at it head on. Trump will probably still struggle and scrabble to come up with attack lines that work.
So far, everything he’s tried to regain the initiative has failed. On Monday, he spoke to Elon Musk for two hours on the tech billionaire’s social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
It didn’t help that the start was delayed 40 minutes by a technical glitch (it must have been the US “deep state” or “Iranian hackers,” his more conspiratorial supporters claimed, without any evidence). But when the talk finally started, it was so “boring” that it struggled to make much news.
Trump unleashed all his usual grievances, personal insults, and well-spread lies, none of which Musk challenged. Trump likes his interrogators to be complacent. Harris was “third rate,” even “crazy,” but the presidents of Russia, China, and North Korea were “tough,” “smart,” “at the height of their powers.”
It’s a curious, and some might say bizarre, strategy to become president of the world’s largest democracy by praising three of the world’s most vicious autocrats. But then again, Trump has never met a strongman he didn’t admire (and probably emulate).
The week before, in an attempt to regain the spotlight, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, his bling palace in Florida.
It was staged to underscore his willingness to be questioned, compared to Harris, who has yet to give a proper interview or press conference since replacing Biden. She prefers the safety of the teleprompter to unscripted exposure, with past experience suggesting she would be vulnerable.
But again, Trump had nothing of substance to say. Instead of criticizing Harris’ threadbare record as vice president and her past embrace of every fashionable left-wing cause under the sun, he was typically vitriolic, crass, mean-spirited and vindictive.
This worked in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, whom even Democrats didn’t like. It doesn’t work against Harris, whose popularity is growing from a low base, in part because she remains hermetically sealed off from scrutiny.
Trump’s failing campaign is already reflected in the polls. Before the June debate with Biden, which was a car crash for the president, Trump had a small lead in the polls in most swing states, but not by much.
Harris will continue to dominate headlines at the Democratic National Convention later this month in Chicago, where Queen Kamala will be crowned in a glittering, star-studded primetime event.
After the debate, Trump’s lead grew and he began to look unstoppable. But when Harris replaced Biden, the polls returned to where they were before. Now they’re moving in Harris’s direction.
The latest New York Times poll in three crucial swing states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – has Harris leading by substantial margins (50 percent to 46 percent) in all three among likely voters. Still within the margin of error, since the polls in each state are quite small (fewer than 700); but it’s clear the momentum is with her.
Her popularity rating is rising, with Democratic support for their candidate up from 60 percent in May to 87 percent now. A smart Trump campaign would see that as an opportunity.
Moderates are still winnable, so the Republican election strategy should be to ruthlessly undermine her previous policy positions — against private health insurance (the bedrock of the U.S. healthcare system), against fracking (the reason America is energy independent), and in favor of defunding the police, decriminalizing illegal entry, a socialist-style Green New Deal, and gun confiscation — while pointing out that in Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, she has a running mate who will not curb her leftist leanings, but rather encourage them.
You wouldn’t find it hard for Trump to build a winning campaign on these lines of attack. After all, the economy and immigration are the two most important issues for voters, and he has an edge over Harris on both. But he’s not interested in things as mundane as policy.
Instead, he howls into the wind. Furious that Harris’ rallies outnumber his own, he accuses her people of inflating the numbers with the help of artificial intelligence. He claims “nobody showed up,” when photos of a Harris rally in a Detroit airport hangar show about 10,000 people in attendance.
I don’t blame anyone for my disdain for the overwhelmingly partisan Democratic media in America, but for Trump’s claim to be true, they would all have to be in on the AI conspiracy, as every major newspaper and broadcaster reported on the events in Detroit.
It’s downright absurd, even insane — a word quietly but increasingly being used to describe Trump, even in some Republican circles.
He has no focus on the issues that matter and could determine the election. No consistent case to justify why he should stay in the White House for another four years.
But he recently told his supporters that “Biden was loaded and ready to take me out.” He even mused out loud that Biden might show up in Chicago to take back the nomination from Harris. Crazy, really.
Whisper it softly, but some say his age (78) is becoming a factor, that he is now the Biden of the 2024 campaign. He slurred his words in his interview with Musk. Some even speculate that he is at risk of a breakdown.
Far-fetched perhaps. But his core following is losing enthusiasm. He babbles longer and more incoherently than ever at his rallies.
Harris-Walz are eminently beatable. Almost any competent mainstream Republican ticket could do it. But sometimes Trump is his own worst enemy. If he loses again in November, he’ll have no one to blame but himself.
Some Republican strategists have given up hope on the White House, thinking it best to focus on checking a Harris-Walz administration with a Republican-controlled Congress. European capitals will take comfort in the prospect that, while Harris is hardly a foreign policy great, NATO should be safe with her in the Oval Office.
In theory, everything is still up for grabs. Harris-Walz are very beatable. Almost any competent mainstream Republican ticket could do it. There will be at least one Harris-Trump debate (Sept. 10) during the campaign, and perhaps three.
Harris will be at her most vulnerable, without an autocue to protect her. Trump could be at his most dangerous. But not if he eschews policy critiques in favor of pathetic, childish personal attacks. That won’t sit well with voters.
These are dangerous times, and Americans want adult debates between those who would want to be their president. It seems like such an obvious point for Trump to understand, but sometimes he just doesn’t get it. Sometimes he’s his own worst enemy.
If he loses again in November, he will have no one to blame but himself.